Deren vs Central Stallions
Match result probability Model pick: Deren win
Deren winPick
46.6%
Draw
17.9%
Central Stallions win
35.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.571.0%
Under 2.529.0%
How much we know
Deren history41 matches
Central Stallions history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Deren
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 07:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 08:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Deren are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Deren are rated 39 Elo points higher
Elo 1,606 against 1,567. On rating alone Deren would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Deren score more
2.83 goals a game over 41 matches for Deren, against 2.15 over 40 for Central Stallions.
-
Deren concede fewer
Deren concede 1.05 a game, Central Stallions 1.83.
-
Central Stallions games more often go over 2.5 goals
59% of Deren matches, against 73% for Central Stallions. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 11 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Central Stallions@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1606.1
ELO
1567.0
41
ELO · Matches
40
1606.1
Current Team ELO
1567.0
1567.0
Current Opponent ELO
1606.1
39.12
Current ELO Difference
-39.12
0.56
Expected score
0.44
41
History Matches
40
0.13
Residual Mean
0.08
58.43
Overperformance
55.34
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
3.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
3.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
4.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
41
Matches
40
1.93
PPG
1.60
58.5%
Win rate
47.5%
17.1%
Draw rate
17.5%
24.4%
Loss rate
35.0%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.5%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
47.5%
3.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
21
1.80
PPG
1.81
50.0%
Win rate
52.4%
30.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
20.0%
Loss rate
23.8%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
3.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.31
20
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.83
Goals for per game
2.15
85.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
56.1%
BTTS rate
62.5%
3.20
Goals for per game
2.33
90.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
41
History Matches
40
2.83
Goals Mean
2.15
2.81
Goals Std
2.42
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
58.5%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
41.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
3.20
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.05
Goals against per game
1.83
68.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.43
70.0%
Conceding rate
76.2%
41
History Matches
40
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.83
0.96
Conceded Std
1.72
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.5%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
41
History Matches
40
0.87
Result entropy
0.93
3.29
Goal Difference Std
3.41
12.67
Stability score
6.60
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
40
Eligible Matches
39
19
Lead Matches
12
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.26
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
130.2
Rest days
94.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
22
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
10
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.88
93.67
Portability Score
53.13
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
41
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO39.12
PPG0.33
GF0.68
GA-0.78
PPG-0.01
PPG0.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.68
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate16.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std2.39
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.78
Conceded Std-0.75
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score6.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.39
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.68
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score40.54
Rest days35.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.93
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Current Team ELO39.12
Current Opponent ELO-39.12
Current ELO Difference78.24
Expected score0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Deren
L
Hunters2–1Deren6 Nov · away
Pick: Deren 53% · missed D
Central Stallions3–3Deren2 Nov · away
Pick: Deren 52% · missed L
Ulaanbaatar1–0Deren29 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 46% · hit W
Deren2–0Hunters25 Oct · home
Pick: Deren 53% · hit W
Deren5–0Erchim14 Oct · home
Pick: Deren 88% · hit Central Stallions
L
Ulaanbaatar3–2Central Stallions6 Nov · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 57% · hit D
Central Stallions3–3Deren2 Nov · home
Pick: Deren 52% · missed W
Hunters1–7Central Stallions29 Oct · away
Pick: Central Stallions 47% · hit L
Central Stallions0–1Ulaanbaatar25 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit L
Ulaanbaatar2–0Central Stallions18 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 58% · hit About this match
Deren and Central Stallions meet in Premier League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Deren win 46.6%, draw 17.9%, Central Stallions win 35.5%. The pick is Deren win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.0%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.