Ulaanbaatar vs Hunters
Match result probability Model pick: Ulaanbaatar win
Ulaanbaatar winPick
62.9%
Draw
13.6%
Hunters win
23.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes65.5%
No34.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.575.9%
Under 2.524.1%
How much we know
Ulaanbaatar history42 matches
Hunters history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ulaanbaatar
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 04:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 05:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Ulaanbaatar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ulaanbaatar are rated 99 Elo points higher
Elo 1,623 against 1,524. On rating alone Ulaanbaatar would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Ulaanbaatar score more
2.93 goals a game over 42 matches for Ulaanbaatar, against 2.54 over 37 for Hunters.
-
Ulaanbaatar concede fewer
Ulaanbaatar concede 1.19 a game, Hunters 1.62.
-
Ulaanbaatar games more often go over 2.5 goals
74% of Ulaanbaatar matches, against 59% for Hunters. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hunters@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1623.0
ELO
1524.5
42
ELO · Matches
37
1623.0
Current Team ELO
1524.5
1524.5
Current Opponent ELO
1623.0
98.52
Current ELO Difference
-98.52
0.64
Expected score
0.36
42
History Matches
37
0.15
Residual Mean
0.04
60.24
Overperformance
52.38
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
3.00
2.20
Goals for per game
7.60
2.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.20
2.60
Goals for per game
4.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
4.80
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.84
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.41
Overall performance9 signals 90
42
Matches
37
2.10
PPG
1.46
64.3%
Win rate
43.2%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.2%
19.0%
Loss rate
40.5%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
73.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
54.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.4%
2.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.54
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
18
1.91
PPG
1.61
56.5%
Win rate
50.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
11.1%
21.7%
Loss rate
38.9%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
56.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.49
23
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.93
Goals for per game
2.54
85.7%
Scoring rate
75.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
56.8%
2.87
Goals for per game
2.67
87.0%
Scoring rate
72.2%
65.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
42
History Matches
37
2.93
Goals Mean
2.54
2.19
Goals Std
2.93
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.7%
73.8%
Scored 2+ rate
45.9%
57.1%
Scored 3+ rate
35.1%
2.87
Venue Goals Mean
2.67
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.62
64.3%
Conceding rate
78.4%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.56
69.6%
Conceding rate
77.8%
42
History Matches
37
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.33
Conceded Std
1.32
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.6%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
42
History Matches
37
0.82
Result entropy
0.93
2.73
Goal Difference Std
3.54
18.21
Stability score
6.83
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
42
Eligible Matches
37
24
Lead Matches
15
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
10
14.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
1.43
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.54
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
93.88
Rest days
131.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.44
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
20
Normal Rest History Matches
23
2.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
12
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.74
68.54
Portability Score
57.43
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
42
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO98.52
PPG0.64
GF0.39
GA-0.43
PPG0.30
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std-0.74
Scored 1+ rate10.0%
Scored 2+ rate27.9%
Scored 3+ rate22.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.04
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.80
Stability score11.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.00
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.28
Portability Score11.11
Rest days-37.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.05
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO98.52
Current Opponent ELO-98.52
Current ELO Difference197.0
Expected score0.28
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ulaanbaatar
W
Ulaanbaatar3–2Central Stallions6 Nov · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 57% · hit W
Hunters1–9Ulaanbaatar2 Nov · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit W
Ulaanbaatar1–0Deren29 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 46% · hit W
Central Stallions0–1Ulaanbaatar25 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit W
Ulaanbaatar2–0Central Stallions18 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 58% · hit Hunters
W
Hunters2–1Deren6 Nov · home
Pick: Deren 53% · missed L
Hunters1–9Ulaanbaatar2 Nov · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit L
Hunters1–7Central Stallions29 Oct · home
Pick: Central Stallions 47% · hit L
Deren2–0Hunters25 Oct · away
Pick: Deren 53% · hit W
Hunters5–1Erchim18 Oct · home
Pick: Hunters 80% · hit About this match
Ulaanbaatar and Hunters meet in Premier League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Ulaanbaatar win 62.9%, draw 13.6%, Hunters win 23.5%. The pick is Ulaanbaatar win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.9%. Both teams to score: 65.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.