ScoreProb
Superliga Albania Round 11 2026

Dinamo Tirana vs Skenderbeu Korce

Dinamo Tirana Home · Elo 1,552
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Skenderbeu Korce Away · Elo 1,625
Elbasan Arena, Elbasani Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Tirana win
Dinamo Tirana winPick
45.0%
Draw
30.8%
Skenderbeu Korce win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.3%
No54.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

Dinamo Tirana history81 matches
Skenderbeu Korce history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dinamo Tirana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Skenderbeu Korce are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,552. On rating alone Skenderbeu Korce would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Skenderbeu Korce score more

    1.26 goals a game over 81 matches for Dinamo Tirana, against 1.56 over 54 for Skenderbeu Korce.

  • Skenderbeu Korce concede fewer

    Dinamo Tirana concede 1.04 a game, Skenderbeu Korce 0.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Dinamo Tirana matches, against 44% for Skenderbeu Korce. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dinamo Tirana
Skenderbeu Korce
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.9
ELO
1624.7
81
ELO · Matches
54
1551.9
Current Team ELO
1624.7
1624.7
Current Opponent ELO
1551.9
-72.75
Current ELO Difference
72.75
0.40
Expected score
0.60
81
History Matches
54
0.03
Residual Mean
0.11
52.29
Overperformance
58.22
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
54
1.44
PPG
1.94
38.3%
Win rate
57.4%
29.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
32.1%
Loss rate
20.4%
72.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.5%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
17.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.4%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
27
1.64
PPG
1.96
43.6%
Win rate
55.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
29.6%
23.1%
Loss rate
14.8%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.06
39
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.56
64.2%
Scoring rate
81.5%
44.4%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.51
Goals for per game
1.37
71.8%
Scoring rate
81.5%
46.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
81
History Matches
54
1.26
Goals Mean
1.56
1.28
Goals Std
1.17
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
0.91
67.9%
Conceding rate
57.4%
0.92
Goals against per game
0.74
64.1%
Conceding rate
51.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
81
History Matches
54
1.04
Conceded Mean
0.91
0.94
Conceded Std
0.91
27.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.7%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
0.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.89
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.35
0.53
Stability score
11.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
54
24
Lead Matches
18
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.74
25
Trailing Matches
10
36.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
78.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.10
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
9
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.60
Portability PPG Range
0.98
49.41
Portability Score
55.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-72.75
PPG-0.50
GF-0.30
GA0.13
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.32
PPG0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate17.3%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches27
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches27
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches27
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-10.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-5.70
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.80
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-72.75
Current Opponent ELO72.75
Current ELO Difference-145.5
Expected score-0.21
History Matches27
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dinamo Tirana

D
Vora2–2Dinamo Tirana2 Nov · away
Pick: Vora 44% · missed
W
Dinamo Tirana2–1Egnatia Rrogozhinë25 Oct · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 43% · missed
L
Dinamo Tirana0–2Teuta Durrës16 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Tirana 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Skenderbeu Korce

D
Skenderbeu Korce1–1Vllaznia Shkodër1 Nov · home
Pick: Skenderbeu Korce 37% · missed
D
Skenderbeu Korce1–1Laci28 Oct · home
Pick: Skenderbeu Korce 39% · missed
W
Partizani0–2Skenderbeu Korce24 Oct · away
Pick: Partizani 36% · missed
W
Skenderbeu Korce2–1AF Elbasani17 Oct · home
Pick: Skenderbeu Korce 44% · hit
W
Skenderbeu Korce4–1Naftëtari Kuçovë6 Oct · home
Pick: Skenderbeu Korce 71% · hit

About this match

Dinamo Tirana and Skenderbeu Korce meet in Superliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Elbasan Arena, Elbasani. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Dinamo Tirana win 45.0%, draw 30.8%, Skenderbeu Korce win 24.1%. The pick is Dinamo Tirana win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 45.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.