ScoreProb
Superliga Albania Round 11 2026

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vora

Egnatia Rrogozhinë Home · Elo 1,599
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vora Away · Elo 1,524
Demrozi Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
Egnatia Rrogozhinë winPick
63.4%
Draw
22.2%
Vora win
14.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

Egnatia Rrogozhinë history82 matches
Vora history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Egnatia Rrogozhinë are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,524. On rating alone Egnatia Rrogozhinë would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë score more

    1.44 goals a game over 82 matches for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, against 1.24 over 58 for Vora.

  • Defences are close

    Egnatia Rrogozhinë concede 0.99 a game, Vora 1.05.

  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Egnatia Rrogozhinë matches, against 31% for Vora. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Vora
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1599.3
ELO
1524.2
82
ELO · Matches
58
1599.3
Current Team ELO
1524.2
1524.2
Current Opponent ELO
1599.3
75.11
Current ELO Difference
-75.11
0.61
Expected score
0.39
82
History Matches
58
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.94
Overperformance
51.30
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.60
2.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
58
1.66
PPG
1.45
45.1%
Win rate
39.7%
30.5%
Draw rate
25.9%
24.4%
Loss rate
34.5%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
60.3%
40.2%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
30
1.74
PPG
1.20
45.2%
Win rate
33.3%
38.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
46.7%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
26.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
42
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.24
74.4%
Scoring rate
67.2%
45.1%
BTTS rate
43.1%
1.62
Goals for per game
0.83
76.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.2%
BTTS rate
36.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
82
History Matches
58
1.44
Goals Mean
1.24
1.28
Goals Std
1.39
74.4%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
27.6%
13.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.99
Goals against per game
1.05
61.0%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.17
57.1%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
82
History Matches
58
0.99
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.03
Conceded Std
0.90
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.4%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
58
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.55
3.03
Stability score
1.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
56
29
Lead Matches
17
82.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.82
16
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
56
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.71
0.50
Portability PPG Range
1.74
74.51
Portability Score
41.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO75.11
PPG0.21
GF0.20
GA-0.06
PPG0.00
PPG0.54
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches24
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate16.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches24
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches24
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score1.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.54
Portability PPG Range-1.24
Portability Score33.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO75.11
Current Opponent ELO-75.11
Current ELO Difference150.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches24
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

W
Tirana1–2Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 Nov · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 52% · hit
W
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–0Teuta Durrës29 Oct · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 65% · hit
L
Dinamo Tirana2–1Egnatia Rrogozhinë25 Oct · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 43% · missed
D
Aarhus1–1Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 Oct · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 44% · missed
W
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3–1Vllaznia Shkodër18 Oct · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 61% · hit

Vora

D
Vora2–2Dinamo Tirana2 Nov · home
Pick: Vora 44% · missed
W
Vora2–1Vllaznia Shkodër28 Oct · home
Pick: Vora 42% · hit
L
Laci1–0Vora24 Oct · away
Pick: Laci 48% · hit
W
Vora4–1Partizani18 Oct · home
Pick: Vora 44% · hit
L
Vora1–3Egnatia Rrogozhinë31 Aug · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 49% · hit

About this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Vora meet in Superliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Demrozi Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 63.4%, draw 22.2%, Vora win 14.4%. The pick is Egnatia Rrogozhinë win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.