ScoreProb
NB III - Northeast Hungary Northeast - 15 2026

Diósgyőr II vs Tarpa

Diósgyőr II Home · Elo 1,483
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tarpa Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Diósgyőr II win
Diósgyőr II winPick
54.6%
Draw
18.6%
Tarpa win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Diósgyőr II history48 matches
Tarpa history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Diósgyőr II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tarpa are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,483. On rating alone Tarpa would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 48 matches for Diósgyőr II, against 1.37 over 38 for Tarpa.

  • Tarpa concede fewer

    Diósgyőr II concede 1.69 a game, Tarpa 1.13.

  • Diósgyőr II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Diósgyőr II matches, against 47% for Tarpa. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Diósgyőr II
Tarpa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.7
ELO
1520.2
48
ELO · Matches
38
1482.7
Current Team ELO
1520.2
1520.2
Current Opponent ELO
1482.7
-37.47
Current ELO Difference
37.47
0.45
Expected score
0.55
48
History Matches
38
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.82
Overperformance
51.35
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
38
1.25
PPG
1.53
33.3%
Win rate
39.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
34.2%
41.7%
Loss rate
26.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
20
1.50
PPG
1.10
37.5%
Win rate
25.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
35.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
24
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.37
79.2%
Scoring rate
73.7%
64.6%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
70.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
38
1.50
Goals Mean
1.37
1.27
Goals Std
1.20
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
14.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.13
79.2%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.35
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
38
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.28
Conceded Std
1.03
54.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.9%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
38
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.65
1.92
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
35
13
Lead Matches
14
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.76
12
Trailing Matches
8
25.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.77
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
23
Long Rest History Matches
12
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.06
Portability PPG Range
1.58
95.38
Portability Score
43.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-37.47
PPG-0.28
GF0.13
GA0.56
PPG0.50
PPG0.40
PPG0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate4.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate25.2%
Conceded 3+ rate15.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score0.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate13.2%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.62
Portability PPG Range-1.53
Portability Score51.76
Rest days2.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-37.47
Current Opponent ELO37.47
Current ELO Difference-74.95
Expected score-0.11
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Diósgyőr II

L
Tiszafuredi VSE2–1Diósgyőr II31 Oct · away
Pick: Tiszafuredi VSE 45% · hit
L
Diósgyőr II0–3Cigand SE24 Oct · home
Pick: Cigand SE 59% · hit
W
Tiszaújváros0–4Diósgyőr II17 Oct · away
Pick: Diósgyőr II 40% · hit
D
Diósgyőr II2–2Hajdúnánás30 Aug · home
Pick: Diósgyőr II 64% · missed
W
Mátészalka0–3Diósgyőr II26 Aug · away
Pick: Mátészalka 48% · missed

Tarpa

D
Tarpa2–2Hajdúnánás31 Oct · home
Pick: Tarpa 53% · missed
L
Mátészalka4–0Tarpa24 Oct · away
Pick: Mátészalka 50% · hit
W
Tarpa2–1Gödöllő17 Oct · home
Pick: Gödöllő 37% · missed
L
Cigand SE3–1Tarpa30 Aug · away
Pick: Cigand SE 69% · hit
L
Tarpa0–3Tiszaújváros26 Aug · home
Pick: Tiszaújváros 39% · hit

About this match

Diósgyőr II and Tarpa meet in NB III - Northeast on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Diósgyőr II win 54.6%, draw 18.6%, Tarpa win 26.7%. The pick is Diósgyőr II win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.