ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 19 2026

DJK Bamberg vs Bayern Hof

DJK Bamberg Home · Elo 1,450
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bayern Hof Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayern Hof win
DJK Bamberg win
19.1%
Draw
19.0%
Bayern Hof winPick
61.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.0%
Under 2.532.0%

How much we know

DJK Bamberg history7 matches
Bayern Hof history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.

Why Bayern Hof are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayern Hof are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,450. On rating alone Bayern Hof would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Bayern Hof score more

    1.14 goals a game over 7 matches for DJK Bamberg, against 1.63 over 52 for Bayern Hof.

  • Bayern Hof concede fewer

    DJK Bamberg concede 3.00 a game, Bayern Hof 1.52.

  • DJK Bamberg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of DJK Bamberg matches, against 62% for Bayern Hof. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
DJK Bamberg
Bayern Hof@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1449.8
ELO
1507.1
7
ELO · Matches
52
1449.8
Current Team ELO
1507.1
1507.1
Current Opponent ELO
1449.8
-57.26
Current ELO Difference
57.26
0.42
Expected score
0.58
7
History Matches
52
-0.34
Residual Mean
0.01
41.07
Overperformance
50.96
-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
3.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
7
Matches
10
0.29
PPG
1.60
1.14
Goals for per game
1.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.31
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
52
0.29
PPG
1.48
0.0%
Win rate
40.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
26.9%
71.4%
Loss rate
32.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
24
0.50
PPG
1.38
0.0%
Win rate
37.5%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
4
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.63
57.1%
Scoring rate
78.8%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.63
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.71
57.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
7
History Matches
52
1.14
Goals Mean
1.63
1.12
Goals Std
1.44
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
1.52
100.0%
Conceding rate
73.1%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.57
100.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
7
History Matches
52
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.31
Conceded Std
1.34
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
42.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.2%
2.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
52
0.54
Result entropy
0.99
1.55
Goal Difference Std
2.08
45.54
Stability score
1.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
51
2
Lead Matches
14
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.17
Lead Points Retention
0.83
3
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
1.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
1
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
0.29
PPG
1.57
0.0%
Win rate
42.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
71.4%
Loss rate
28.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.29
Current Competition PPG
1.57
-1.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.14
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.36
—
Portability PPG Range
0.87
—
Portability Score
57.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-57.26
PPG-1.20
GF-0.49
GA1.48
PPG-1.29
PPG-0.88
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.31
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-45
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate21.7%
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches-45
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-45
Conceded Mean1.48
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Conceded 2+ rate53.8%
Conceded 3+ rate21.7%
Venue Conceded Mean1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches-45
Result entropy-0.44
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score44.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.79
Lead Points Retention-0.67
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.43
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.75
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.41
Long Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.38
Current Team ELO-57.26
Current Opponent ELO57.26
Current ELO Difference-114.5
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-45
Residual Mean-0.36
Overperformance-9.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

DJK Bamberg

L
Kornburg2–0DJK Bamberg6 Nov · away
Pick: Kornburg 69% · hit
D
ASV Neumarkt0–0DJK Bamberg31 Oct · away
Pick: ASV Neumarkt 63% · missed
W
DJK Bamberg4–1Ammerthal23 Oct · home
Pick: Ammerthal 47% · missed
L
Großbardorf3–1DJK Bamberg16 Oct · away
Pick: Großbardorf 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bayern Hof

W
Bayern Hof4–2Eintracht Bamberg31 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 46% · missed
W
Neudrossenfeld2–3Bayern Hof23 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Hof 39% · hit
W
Bayern Hof3–1Ingolstadt II17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Hof 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

DJK Bamberg and Bayern Hof meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: DJK Bamberg win 19.1%, draw 19.0%, Bayern Hof win 61.9%. The pick is Bayern Hof win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.0%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.