Neudrossenfeld vs Stadeln
Match result probability Model pick: Neudrossenfeld win
Neudrossenfeld winPick
39.5%
Draw
25.0%
Stadeln win
35.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.8%
No43.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%
How much we know
Neudrossenfeld history53 matches
Stadeln history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Neudrossenfeld
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Neudrossenfeld are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,444 against 1,454. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.45 goals a game over 53 matches for Neudrossenfeld, against 1.37 over 43 for Stadeln.
-
Defences are close
Neudrossenfeld concede 1.77 a game, Stadeln 1.84.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
64% of Neudrossenfeld matches, against 60% for Stadeln. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stadeln@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1443.7
ELO
1454.2
53
ELO · Matches
43
1443.7
Current Team ELO
1454.2
1454.2
Current Opponent ELO
1443.7
-10.51
Current ELO Difference
10.51
0.48
Expected score
0.52
53
History Matches
43
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
46.32
Overperformance
46.53
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
43
1.19
PPG
1.21
34.0%
Win rate
34.9%
17.0%
Draw rate
16.3%
49.1%
Loss rate
48.8%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
64.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
21
1.48
PPG
0.90
44.4%
Win rate
23.8%
14.8%
Draw rate
19.0%
40.7%
Loss rate
57.1%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
27
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.37
83.0%
Scoring rate
62.8%
62.3%
BTTS rate
44.2%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.95
88.9%
Scoring rate
47.6%
55.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.71
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
53
History Matches
43
1.45
Goals Mean
1.37
1.13
Goals Std
1.45
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.8%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.2%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.77
Goals against per game
1.84
75.5%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.81
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.43
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
53
History Matches
43
1.77
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.70
Conceded Std
1.63
52.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.8%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.9%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
52.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
52.4%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
43
0.93
Result entropy
0.92
2.03
Goal Difference Std
2.24
7.41
Stability score
7.80
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
53
Eligible Matches
43
12
Lead Matches
16
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.73
21
Trailing Matches
16
23.8%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.19
Rest days
83.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
23
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals 170
7
Matches
7
0.86
PPG
1.71
28.6%
Win rate
42.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
42.9%
71.4%
Loss rate
14.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.86
Current Competition PPG
1.71
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.68
72.89
Portability Score
59.45
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-10.51
PPG-0.02
GF0.08
GA-0.06
PPG-0.86
PPG0.58
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate20.2%
Scored 2+ rate0.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches10
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-0.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate5.1%
Trailing Win Rate1.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.71
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.23
Portability Score13.44
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-10.51
Current Opponent ELO10.51
Current ELO Difference-21.02
Expected score-0.03
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Neudrossenfeld
D
Weiden2–2Neudrossenfeld30 Oct · away
Pick: Weiden 42% · missed L
Neudrossenfeld2–3Bayern Hof23 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Hof 39% · hit L
Kornburg3–1Neudrossenfeld16 Oct · away
Pick: Kornburg 59% · hit W
Ingolstadt II0–1Neudrossenfeld29 Aug · away
Pick: Ingolstadt II 54% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Stadeln
W
Stadeln4–1Nordlingen31 Oct · home
Pick: Stadeln 48% · hit L
Würzburger FV4–0Stadeln24 Oct · away
Pick: Würzburger FV 53% · hit D
Stadeln1–1Viktoria Aschaffenburg17 Oct · home
Pick: Stadeln 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Neudrossenfeld and Stadeln meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Neudrossenfeld win 39.5%, draw 25.0%, Stadeln win 35.6%. The pick is Neudrossenfeld win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.