ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Dover vs Wealdstone

Dover Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wealdstone Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wealdstone win
Dover win
30.0%
Draw
25.9%
Wealdstone winPick
44.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Dover history80 matches
Wealdstone history92 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wealdstone are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wealdstone are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,469. On rating alone Wealdstone would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 80 matches for Dover, against 1.39 over 92 for Wealdstone.

  • Defences are close

    Dover concede 1.54 a game, Wealdstone 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Dover matches, against 53% for Wealdstone. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dover
Wealdstone
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.5
ELO
1505.0
80
ELO · Matches
92
1469.5
Current Team ELO
1505.0
1505.0
Current Opponent ELO
1469.5
-35.53
Current ELO Difference
35.53
0.45
Expected score
0.55
80
History Matches
92
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.51
Overperformance
51.24
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
92
1.28
PPG
1.43
35.0%
Win rate
41.3%
22.5%
Draw rate
19.6%
42.5%
Loss rate
39.1%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
40
1.33
PPG
0.90
35.6%
Win rate
22.5%
26.7%
Draw rate
22.5%
37.8%
Loss rate
55.0%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
45
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.36
Goals for per game
1.39
78.8%
Scoring rate
73.9%
62.5%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.03
84.4%
Scoring rate
62.5%
64.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
92
1.36
Goals Mean
1.39
1.08
Goals Std
1.30
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
73.9%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.54
Goals against per game
1.53
80.0%
Conceding rate
76.1%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.83
80.0%
Conceding rate
85.0%
80
History Matches
92
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.16
Conceded Std
1.30
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.8%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
92
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.56
Goal Difference Std
2.03
2.90
Stability score
4.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
91
15
Lead Matches
21
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.2%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.95
29
Trailing Matches
30
27.6%
Non-loss rate
23.3%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
67
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
9
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.75
Portability PPG Range
2.00
65.29
Portability Score
44.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
92
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-35.53
PPG-0.16
GF-0.03
GA0.00
PPG0.43
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate0.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.75
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.47
Stability score-1.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate4.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-1.25
Portability Score20.56
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-35.53
Current Opponent ELO35.53
Current ELO Difference-71.06
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dover

W
Dover1–0Farnham Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Dover 44% · hit
L
Dover0–1Chelmsford City27 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit
D
Salisbury1–1Dover24 Oct · away
Pick: Salisbury 55% · missed
W
Dover3–2Dorking Wanderers17 Oct · home
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 42% · missed
D
Chesham United2–2Dover31 Aug · away
Pick: Dover 39% · missed

Wealdstone

W
Wealdstone3–2Southend31 Oct · home
Pick: Southend 45% · missed
L
Wealdstone2–3Solihull Moors27 Oct · home
Pick: Wealdstone 51% · missed
W
Aldershot Town0–1Wealdstone24 Oct · away
Pick: Aldershot Town 52% · missed
W
Wealdstone1–0Nottingham Forest U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Wealdstone 49% · hit
W
Wealdstone3–0Worthing17 Oct · home
Pick: Wealdstone 43% · hit

About this match

Dover and Wealdstone meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dover win 30.0%, draw 25.9%, Wealdstone win 44.1%. The pick is Wealdstone win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.