ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Dovo vs Sparta Nijkerk

Dovo Home · Elo 1,510
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sparta Nijkerk Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dovo win
Dovo winPick
50.3%
Draw
23.4%
Sparta Nijkerk win
26.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

Dovo history52 matches
Sparta Nijkerk history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dovo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,492. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sparta Nijkerk score far more

    1.29 goals a game over 52 matches for Dovo, against 2.11 over 55 for Sparta Nijkerk.

  • Defences are close

    Dovo concede 1.50 a game, Sparta Nijkerk 1.62.

  • Sparta Nijkerk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Dovo matches, against 67% for Sparta Nijkerk. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dovo
Sparta Nijkerk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.3
ELO
1492.1
52
ELO · Matches
55
1510.3
Current Team ELO
1492.1
1492.1
Current Opponent ELO
1510.3
18.23
Current ELO Difference
-18.23
0.53
Expected score
0.47
52
History Matches
55
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.55
Overperformance
50.07
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
2.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
55
1.31
PPG
1.44
36.5%
Win rate
41.8%
21.2%
Draw rate
18.2%
42.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
52.7%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.52
PPG
1.36
44.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
44.0%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
2.11
73.1%
Scoring rate
87.3%
59.6%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.92
76.0%
Scoring rate
96.0%
56.0%
BTTS rate
76.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
55
1.29
Goals Mean
2.11
1.20
Goals Std
1.66
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.3%
34.6%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
32.7%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.62
80.8%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.76
76.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
55
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.23
Conceded Std
1.24
44.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.0%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.67
Goal Difference Std
2.28
3.48
Stability score
5.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
40
11
Lead Matches
12
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.89
15
Trailing Matches
10
13.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.03
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.52
Portability PPG Range
0.61
65.86
Portability Score
61.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.23
PPG-0.13
GF-0.82
GA-0.12
PPG0.50
PPG0.16
PPG1.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate14.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.46
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.61
Stability score-1.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score3.93
Rest days0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO18.23
Current Opponent ELO-18.23
Current ELO Difference36.45
Expected score0.05
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dovo

D
ACV1–1Dovo24 Oct · away
Pick: ACV 50% · missed
L
Dovo2–3Harkemase Boys17 Oct · home
Pick: Dovo 38% · missed
L
Dovo2–3VV Scherpenzeel29 Aug · home
Pick: Dovo 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sparta Nijkerk

L
Hoek4–2Sparta Nijkerk29 Oct · away
Pick: Hoek 57% · hit
W
Sparta Nijkerk2–0Hoogeveen24 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Nijkerk 49% · hit
L
Purmersteijn3–0Sparta Nijkerk17 Oct · away
Pick: Purmersteijn 45% · hit
D
Sparta Nijkerk5–5Hollandia29 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Nijkerk 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dovo and Sparta Nijkerk meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dovo win 50.3%, draw 23.4%, Sparta Nijkerk win 26.2%. The pick is Dovo win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.