ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

SVZW vs Hercules

SVZW Home · Elo 1,491
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hercules Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SVZW win
SVZW winPick
46.0%
Draw
24.8%
Hercules win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.8%
Under 2.534.2%

How much we know

SVZW history2 matches
Hercules history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SVZW are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,491 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • SVZW score more

    2.00 goals a game over 2 matches for SVZW, against 1.53 over 55 for Hercules.

  • Hercules concede fewer

    SVZW concede 2.50 a game, Hercules 1.85.

  • Hercules games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of SVZW matches, against 60% for Hercules. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SVZW
Hercules
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.6
ELO
1471.1
2
ELO · Matches
55
1490.6
Current Team ELO
1471.1
1471.1
Current Opponent ELO
1490.6
19.54
Current ELO Difference
-19.54
0.53
Expected score
0.47
2
History Matches
55
-0.23
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.87
Overperformance
47.86
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
0.50
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.50
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
2.10
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.02
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
55
0.50
PPG
1.13
0.0%
Win rate
30.9%
50.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
49.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
29
1.00
PPG
0.62
0.0%
Win rate
13.8%
100.0%
Draw rate
20.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
65.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
58.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
1
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.53
100.0%
Scoring rate
74.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.48
100.0%
Scoring rate
69.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
58.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
55
2.00
Goals Mean
1.53
1.00
Goals Std
1.41
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.50
Goals against per game
1.85
100.0%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.34
100.0%
Conceding rate
82.8%
2.50
Goals against per game
3.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
55
2.50
Conceded Mean
1.85
1.50
Conceded Std
1.57
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
55
0.63
Result entropy
0.94
0.50
Goal Difference Std
2.13
36.91
Stability score
5.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
43
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
12
—
Non-loss rate
33.3%
—
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
3.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
25
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.68
1
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
1
Competition Season Count
6
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.41
—
Portability PPG Range
0.98
—
Portability Score
55.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.54
PPG-0.63
GF0.47
GA0.65
PPG0.50
PPG0.38
PPG-0.50
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-53
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-53
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate25.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate30.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.02
History Matches-53
Conceded Mean0.65
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate17.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-53
Result entropy-0.31
Goal Difference Std-1.63
Stability score31.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.23
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches-12
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.95
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Long Rest History Matches-28
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO19.54
Current Opponent ELO-19.54
Current ELO Difference39.07
Expected score0.06
History Matches-53
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SVZW

L
DVS 33 Ermelo4–3SVZW24 Oct · away
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 57% · hit
L
SVZW0–1Hollandia17 Oct · home
Pick: SVZW 45% · missed
L
Excelsior '314–0SVZW29 Aug · away
Pick: Excelsior '31 72% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hercules

W
Hercules4–1Staphorst24 Oct · home
Pick: Hercules 42% · hit
L
Eemdijk2–0Hercules17 Oct · away
Pick: Eemdijk 52% · hit
L
Harkemase Boys5–3Hercules29 Aug · away
Pick: Harkemase Boys 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SVZW and Hercules meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: SVZW win 46.0%, draw 24.8%, Hercules win 29.2%. The pick is SVZW win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.8%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.