ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd Germany NOFV- Sud - 11 2026

Dresden II vs Germania Halberstadt

Dresden II Home · Elo 1,513
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Germania Halberstadt Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Germania Halberstadt win
Dresden II win
29.7%
Draw
31.7%
Germania Halberstadt winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Dresden II history3 matches
Germania Halberstadt history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Germania Halberstadt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,513 against 1,498. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Germania Halberstadt score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 3 matches for Dresden II, against 1.75 over 52 for Germania Halberstadt.

  • Dresden II concede fewer

    Dresden II concede 0.67 a game, Germania Halberstadt 1.87.

  • Germania Halberstadt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of Dresden II matches, against 71% for Germania Halberstadt. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dresden II
Germania Halberstadt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.6
ELO
1498.5
3
ELO · Matches
52
1512.6
Current Team ELO
1498.5
1498.5
Current Opponent ELO
1512.6
14.18
Current ELO Difference
-14.18
0.52
Expected score
0.48
3
History Matches
52
0.18
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.38
Overperformance
49.09
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.67
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
0.67
Goals against per game
2.20
33.3%
Win rate
40.0%
3
Matches
10
1.67
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.67
Goals against per game
2.30
33.3%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
52
1.67
PPG
1.44
33.3%
Win rate
42.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
17.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
29
3.00
PPG
1.10
100.0%
Win rate
31.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
17.2%
0.0%
Loss rate
51.7%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
1
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
78.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
65.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.38
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
0.0%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
52
1.00
Goals Mean
1.75
0.00
Goals Std
1.30
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
55.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.87
66.7%
Conceding rate
80.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.07
0.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
52
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.87
0.47
Conceded Std
1.52
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.6%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
52
0.58
Result entropy
0.94
0.47
Goal Difference Std
2.14
42.06
Stability score
5.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
51
0
Lead Matches
14
—
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.83
0
Trailing Matches
19
—
Non-loss rate
31.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.02
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
1
Long Rest History Matches
24
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
2
Competition Season Count
5
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.62
—
Portability PPG Range
1.42
—
Portability Score
44.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO14.18
PPG0.22
GF-0.75
GA-1.20
PPG-1.00
PPG1.90
PPG0.27
PPG0.87
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-49
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate79.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-49
Goals Mean-0.75
Goals Std-1.30
Scored 1+ rate21.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.56
Scored 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.33
History Matches-49
Conceded Mean-1.20
Conceded Std-1.05
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.46
Conceded 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Conceded Mean-2.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches-49
Result entropy-0.36
Goal Difference Std-1.66
Stability score36.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.22
Eligible Matches-49
Lead Matches-14
Trailing Matches-19
Halftime Coverage Matches-49
First Half Goals For Mean-0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.56
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches-23
Long Rest Points Per Match1.17
Current Team ELO14.18
Current Opponent ELO-14.18
Current ELO Difference28.36
Expected score0.04
History Matches-49
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance3.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dresden II

D
ZFC Meuselwitz3–3Dresden II1 Nov · away
Pick: ZFC Meuselwitz 51% · missed
W
Dresden II5–2Union Sandersdorf25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
L
Weissenfels2–1Dresden II17 Oct · away
Pick: Weissenfels 57% · hit
W
Dresden II5–1Einheit Rudolstadt30 Aug · home
Pick: Dresden II 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Germania Halberstadt

W
Germania Halberstadt4–2Budissa Bautzen1 Nov · home
Pick: Germania Halberstadt 70% · hit
L
Plauen2–0Germania Halberstadt24 Oct · away
Pick: Germania Halberstadt 40% · missed
L
Germania Halberstadt2–4VfL Halle18 Oct · home
Pick: Germania Halberstadt 54% · missed
W
Germania Halberstadt5–0Krieschow29 Aug · home
Pick: Germania Halberstadt 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dresden II and Germania Halberstadt meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Dresden II win 29.7%, draw 31.7%, Germania Halberstadt win 38.6%. The pick is Germania Halberstadt win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.