ScoreProb
Super Liga Slovakia Round 14 2026

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava

Dukla Banská Bystrica Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spartak Trnava Away · Elo 1,618
Venue to be confirmed Referee: J. Sucka Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Trnava win
Dukla Banská Bystrica win
20.9%
Draw
20.0%
Spartak Trnava winPick
59.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%

How much we know

Dukla Banská Bystrica history74 matches
Spartak Trnava history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Spartak Trnava are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spartak Trnava are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,531. On rating alone Spartak Trnava would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Spartak Trnava score more

    1.51 goals a game over 74 matches for Dukla Banská Bystrica, against 1.74 over 81 for Spartak Trnava.

  • Spartak Trnava concede fewer

    Dukla Banská Bystrica concede 1.42 a game, Spartak Trnava 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Dukla Banská Bystrica matches, against 58% for Spartak Trnava. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Spartak Trnava
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.3
ELO
1617.9
74
ELO · Matches
81
1531.3
Current Team ELO
1617.9
1617.9
Current Opponent ELO
1531.3
-86.62
Current ELO Difference
86.62
0.38
Expected score
0.62
74
History Matches
81
0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
51.47
Overperformance
55.66
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
3.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.90
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
81
1.43
PPG
1.70
41.9%
Win rate
49.4%
17.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
40.5%
Loss rate
28.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.2%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
41
1.53
PPG
1.56
44.4%
Win rate
43.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
24.4%
36.1%
Loss rate
31.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.1%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
36
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.74
74.3%
Scoring rate
80.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.56
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.5%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
74
History Matches
81
1.51
Goals Mean
1.74
1.31
Goals Std
1.41
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.2%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
24.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.17
70.3%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.27
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.2%
2.60
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
74
History Matches
81
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.25
Conceded Std
1.13
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.2%
20.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
81
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.05
5.70
Stability score
5.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
80
27
Lead Matches
32
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
84.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.89
26
Trailing Matches
23
23.1%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.91
46
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
2.60
-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
8
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.98
Portability PPG Range
1.46
41.47
Portability Score
52.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-86.62
PPG-0.27
GF-0.23
GA0.25
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.03
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Conceded 2+ rate16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.70
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score0.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.80
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.52
Portability Score-10.55
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO-86.62
Current Opponent ELO86.62
Current ELO Difference-173.2
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dukla Banská Bystrica

L
Dukla Banská Bystrica0–2Dunajska Streda1 Nov · home
Pick: Dunajska Streda 65% · hit
D
Slovan Bratislava2–2Dukla Banská Bystrica24 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 70% · missed
W
Dukla Banská Bystrica1–0Podbrezová18 Oct · home
Pick: Podbrezová 50% · missed
W
Vranov nad Topľou0–2Dukla Banská Bystrica14 Oct · away
Pick: Dukla Banská Bystrica 56% · hit
D
Dukla Banská Bystrica2–2Komárno29 Aug · home
Pick: Dukla Banská Bystrica 40% · missed

Spartak Trnava

L
Spartak Trnava1–2Komárno31 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Trnava 65% · missed
D
Skalica1–1Spartak Trnava24 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Trnava 49% · missed
L
Spartak Trnava0–3Slovan Bratislava17 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 53% · hit
W
Piešťany0–2Spartak Trnava14 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Trnava 38% · hit
L
Spartak Trnava1–3Žilina30 Aug · home
Pick: Spartak Trnava 62% · missed

About this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dukla Banská Bystrica win 20.9%, draw 20.0%, Spartak Trnava win 59.1%. The pick is Spartak Trnava win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.