ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Durango vs Eibar III

Durango Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eibar III Away · Elo 1,455
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Durango win
Durango winPick
35.9%
Draw
29.0%
Eibar III win
35.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Durango history47 matches
Eibar III history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 8 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Durango are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Durango are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,484 against 1,455. On rating alone Durango would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Eibar III score more

    0.96 goals a game over 47 matches for Durango, against 1.24 over 50 for Eibar III.

  • Durango concede fewer

    Durango concede 0.96 a game, Eibar III 1.58.

  • Eibar III games more often go over 2.5 goals

    30% of Durango matches, against 52% for Eibar III. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Durango
Eibar III
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.5
ELO
1455.4
47
ELO · Matches
50
1483.5
Current Team ELO
1455.4
1455.4
Current Opponent ELO
1483.5
28.07
Current ELO Difference
-28.07
0.54
Expected score
0.46
47
History Matches
50
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
48.89
Overperformance
47.23
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
50
1.30
PPG
1.06
31.9%
Win rate
26.0%
34.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
34.0%
Loss rate
46.0%
51.1%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
29.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.42
PPG
0.67
37.5%
Win rate
12.5%
29.2%
Draw rate
29.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
58.3%
45.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
1.24
55.3%
Scoring rate
62.0%
34.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.13
Goals for per game
0.83
58.3%
Scoring rate
58.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
47
History Matches
50
0.96
Goals Mean
1.24
1.17
Goals Std
1.35
55.3%
Scored 1+ rate
62.0%
21.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.0%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.0%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
1.58
61.7%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.83
62.5%
Conceding rate
91.7%
47
History Matches
50
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.01
Conceded Std
1.42
23.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
50
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.57
Goal Difference Std
2.08
0.04
Stability score
3.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
48
10
Lead Matches
12
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
15
23.1%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.2
Rest days
84.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.02
Portability PPG Range
0.06
98.30
Portability Score
94.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.07
PPG0.24
GF-0.28
GA-0.62
PPG0.75
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate18.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate18.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.51
Stability score-3.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate9.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score4.18
Rest days97.26
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO28.07
Current Opponent ELO-28.07
Current ELO Difference56.15
Expected score0.08
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Durango

D
R. Union B1–1Durango1 Nov · away
Pick: R. Union B 36% · missed
W
Durango2–0Pasaia KE24 Oct · home
Pick: Durango 38% · hit
W
Lagun Onak1–2Durango17 Oct · away
Pick: Lagun Onak 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eibar III

D
Eibar III0–0Beasain1 Nov · home
Pick: Beasain 45% · missed
W
Aretxabaleta0–2Eibar III25 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar III 39% · hit
W
Eibar III2–1Santurtzi18 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar III 39% · hit
L
Eibar III2–3Real Sociedad III4 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar III 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Durango and Eibar III meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Durango win 35.9%, draw 29.0%, Eibar III win 35.1%. The pick is Durango win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.