ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Lagun Onak vs Pasaia KE

Lagun Onak Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pasaia KE Away · Elo 1,418
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lagun Onak win
Lagun Onak winPick
45.7%
Draw
31.2%
Pasaia KE win
23.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.1%
Under 2.549.9%

How much we know

Lagun Onak history48 matches
Pasaia KE history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lagun Onak are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lagun Onak are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,418. On rating alone Lagun Onak would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Lagun Onak score far more

    1.50 goals a game over 48 matches for Lagun Onak, against 0.75 over 48 for Pasaia KE.

  • Lagun Onak concede fewer

    Lagun Onak concede 1.10 a game, Pasaia KE 1.44.

  • Lagun Onak games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Lagun Onak matches, against 35% for Pasaia KE. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lagun Onak
Pasaia KE
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.7
ELO
1418.0
48
ELO · Matches
48
1522.7
Current Team ELO
1418.0
1418.0
Current Opponent ELO
1522.7
104.7
Current ELO Difference
-104.7
0.65
Expected score
0.35
48
History Matches
48
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.08
51.64
Overperformance
44.02
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
48
1.54
PPG
0.98
45.8%
Win rate
22.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
29.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
47.9%
64.6%
Over 1.5 rate
60.4%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
35.4%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.58
PPG
1.13
45.8%
Win rate
33.3%
20.8%
Draw rate
12.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
54.2%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
0.75
68.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
35.4%
BTTS rate
35.4%
1.63
Goals for per game
0.75
70.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
29.2%
BTTS rate
25.0%
48
History Matches
48
1.50
Goals Mean
0.75
1.51
Goals Std
0.97
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
14.6%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
1.44
60.4%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.50
45.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
48
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.14
Conceded Std
1.44
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
48
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.82
6.79
Stability score
4.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
46
14
Lead Matches
6
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.78
7
Trailing Matches
14
14.3%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
167.0
Rest days
182.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.13
68.39
Portability Score
88.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO104.7
PPG0.56
GF0.75
GA-0.33
PPG0.46
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.75
Goals Std0.55
Scored 1+ rate18.8%
Scored 2+ rate22.9%
Scored 3+ rate14.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.17
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score2.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate19.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-20.32
Rest days-15.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.56
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO104.7
Current Opponent ELO-104.7
Current ELO Difference209.4
Expected score0.29
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lagun Onak

L
Derio2–1Lagun Onak24 Oct · away
Pick: Derio 51% · hit
L
Lagun Onak1–2Durango17 Oct · home
Pick: Lagun Onak 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pasaia KE

L
Pasaia KE2–3Derio31 Oct · home
Pick: Derio 45% · hit
L
Durango2–0Pasaia KE24 Oct · away
Pick: Durango 38% · hit
L
Pasaia KE1–4Beasain17 Oct · home
Pick: Beasain 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lagun Onak and Pasaia KE meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lagun Onak win 45.7%, draw 31.2%, Pasaia KE win 23.1%. The pick is Lagun Onak win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.1%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.