ScoreProb
Primera División Femenina Spain Round 10 2026

Eibar W vs Real Sociedad W

Eibar W Home · Elo 1,442
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Sociedad W Away · Elo 1,597
Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Sociedad W win
Eibar W win
27.8%
Draw
24.7%
Real Sociedad W winPick
47.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%

How much we know

Eibar W history44 matches
Real Sociedad W history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Sociedad W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Sociedad W are rated 154 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,597 against 1,442. On rating alone Real Sociedad W would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Real Sociedad W score far more

    0.70 goals a game over 44 matches for Eibar W, against 1.67 over 45 for Real Sociedad W.

  • Real Sociedad W concede fewer

    Eibar W concede 1.55 a game, Real Sociedad W 1.18.

  • Real Sociedad W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Eibar W matches, against 56% for Real Sociedad W. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eibar W
Real Sociedad W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1442.4
ELO
1596.7
44
ELO · Matches
45
1442.4
Current Team ELO
1596.7
1596.7
Current Opponent ELO
1442.4
-154.2
Current ELO Difference
154.2
0.29
Expected score
0.71
44
History Matches
45
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.11
45.27
Overperformance
57.60
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.20
0.70
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
45
1.11
PPG
1.73
31.8%
Win rate
51.1%
15.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
52.3%
Loss rate
28.9%
61.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
22
0.90
PPG
1.73
23.8%
Win rate
50.0%
19.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
57.1%
Loss rate
27.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
21
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.70
Goals for per game
1.67
54.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
31.8%
BTTS rate
44.4%
0.71
Goals for per game
1.77
52.4%
Scoring rate
81.8%
38.1%
BTTS rate
45.5%
44
History Matches
45
0.70
Goals Mean
1.67
0.76
Goals Std
1.28
54.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
13.6%
Scored 2+ rate
51.1%
2.3%
Scored 3+ rate
24.4%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.55
Goals against per game
1.18
68.2%
Conceding rate
57.8%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.32
76.2%
Conceding rate
59.1%
44
History Matches
45
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.59
Conceded Std
1.29
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.8%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
47.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
47.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
45
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.88
9.35
Stability score
6.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
45
15
Lead Matches
19
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.79
13
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
160.3
Rest days
160.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.70
0.57
Portability PPG Range
1.40
63.83
Portability Score
41.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-154.2
PPG-0.62
GF-0.96
GA0.37
PPG-0.82
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate25.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate29.4%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.96
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.37
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score2.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.42
Portability PPG Range-0.83
Portability Score22.16
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-154.2
Current Opponent ELO154.2
Current ELO Difference-308.5
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-12.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eibar W

L
Valencia W2–1Eibar W31 Oct · away
Pick: Valencia W 41% · hit
D
Eibar W2–2Madrid CFF W25 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar W 44% · missed
L
Eibar W2–3Deportivo de La Coruña W18 Oct · home
Pick: Eibar W 36% · missed
D
Granada0–0Eibar W4 Oct · away
Pick: Granada 43% · missed
W
Eibar W1–0Espanyol W29 Aug · home
Pick: Eibar W 37% · hit

Real Sociedad W

D
Deportivo Alavés W1–1Real Sociedad W1 Nov · away
Pick: Real Sociedad W 35% · missed
D
Real Sociedad W1–1Espanyol W24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Sociedad W 53% · missed
W
Real Sociedad W2–1Barcelona W18 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona W 52% · missed
W
Valencia W0–1Real Sociedad W4 Oct · away
Pick: Real Sociedad W 47% · hit
L
Real Sociedad W0–2Edf Logrono W29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Sociedad W 65% · missed

About this match

Eibar W and Real Sociedad W meet in Primera División Femenina on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Eibar W win 27.8%, draw 24.7%, Real Sociedad W win 47.4%. The pick is Real Sociedad W win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.