ScoreProb
Primera División Femenina Spain Round 10 2026

Granada vs Espanyol W

Granada Home · Elo 1,529
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Espanyol W Away · Elo 1,449
Ciudad Deportiva del Granada Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Granada win
Granada winPick
41.3%
Draw
27.8%
Espanyol W win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

Granada history44 matches
Espanyol W history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Granada are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Granada are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,449. On rating alone Granada would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Granada score more

    1.25 goals a game over 44 matches for Granada, against 1.02 over 45 for Espanyol W.

  • Granada concede fewer

    Granada concede 1.39 a game, Espanyol W 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Granada matches, against 38% for Espanyol W. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Granada
Espanyol W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.2
ELO
1448.7
44
ELO · Matches
45
1529.2
Current Team ELO
1448.7
1448.7
Current Opponent ELO
1529.2
80.45
Current ELO Difference
-80.45
0.61
Expected score
0.39
44
History Matches
45
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.05
52.21
Overperformance
46.26
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
45
1.52
PPG
1.02
45.5%
Win rate
22.2%
15.9%
Draw rate
35.6%
38.6%
Loss rate
42.2%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.23
PPG
0.86
36.4%
Win rate
18.2%
13.6%
Draw rate
31.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.02
70.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
43.2%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.82
59.1%
Scoring rate
68.2%
36.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
44
History Matches
45
1.25
Goals Mean
1.02
1.03
Goals Std
1.11
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
1.56
70.5%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.59
72.7%
Conceding rate
81.8%
44
History Matches
45
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.28
Conceded Std
1.44
40.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
45
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.83
7.31
Stability score
2.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
45
11
Lead Matches
12
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.69
15
Trailing Matches
16
40.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
26.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
160.0
Rest days
159.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.03
93.33
Portability Score
96.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO80.45
PPG0.50
GF0.23
GA-0.17
PPG0.36
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate9.1%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate21.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score4.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.59
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate23.5%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate21.3%
Trailing Win Rate26.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-3.44
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.63
Current Team ELO80.45
Current Opponent ELO-80.45
Current ELO Difference160.9
Expected score0.23
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance5.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Granada

D
Granada1–1Atletico Madrid W31 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid W 45% · missed
L
Barcelona W3–0Granada24 Oct · away
Pick: Barcelona W 63% · hit
W
Edf Logrono W2–3Granada17 Oct · away
Pick: Granada 48% · hit
D
Granada0–0Eibar W4 Oct · home
Pick: Granada 43% · missed
L
Madrid CFF W3–1Granada29 Aug · away
Pick: Granada 41% · missed

Espanyol W

W
Espanyol W2–1Edf Logrono W31 Oct · home
Pick: Espanyol W 55% · hit
D
Real Sociedad W1–1Espanyol W24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Sociedad W 53% · missed
L
Real Madrid W3–1Espanyol W17 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid W 67% · hit
L
Eibar W1–0Espanyol W29 Aug · away
Pick: Eibar W 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Granada and Espanyol W meet in Primera División Femenina on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Granada win 41.3%, draw 27.8%, Espanyol W win 30.8%. The pick is Granada win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.