ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain Group 6 - 10 2026

Eldense B vs Saguntino

Eldense B Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Saguntino Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Saguntino win
Eldense B win
27.2%
Draw
30.2%
Saguntino winPick
42.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.8%
No55.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.7%
Under 2.556.3%

How much we know

Eldense B history1 match
Saguntino history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 7 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Saguntino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saguntino are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,494. On rating alone Saguntino would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Saguntino score far more

    0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Eldense B, against 1.35 over 52 for Saguntino.

  • Saguntino concede fewer

    Eldense B concede 2.00 a game, Saguntino 1.02.

  • Saguntino games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of Eldense B matches, against 46% for Saguntino. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eldense B
Saguntino
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.7
ELO
1564.0
1
ELO · Matches
52
1493.7
Current Team ELO
1564.0
1564.0
Current Opponent ELO
1493.7
-70.27
Current ELO Difference
70.27
0.40
Expected score
0.60
1
History Matches
52
-0.40
Residual Mean
0.06
48.09
Overperformance
54.14
-0.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.80
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
2.20
0.00
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
52
0.00
PPG
1.56
0.0%
Win rate
42.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
28.8%
100.0%
Loss rate
28.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
0
Matches
27
—
PPG
1.26
—
Win rate
33.3%
—
Draw rate
25.9%
—
Loss rate
40.7%
—
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
—
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
—
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
0
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.00
Goals for per game
1.35
0.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
—
Goals for per game
1.30
—
Scoring rate
77.8%
—
BTTS rate
63.0%
1
History Matches
52
0.00
Goals Mean
1.35
—
Goals Std
1.16
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
1.02
100.0%
Conceding rate
63.5%
—
Goals against per game
1.33
—
Conceding rate
74.1%
1
History Matches
52
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.02
—
Conceded Std
0.95
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
52
0.00
Result entropy
0.98
—
Goal Difference Std
1.44
100.0
Stability score
1.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
52
0
Lead Matches
13
—
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.85
1
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.31
Rest days
84.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
0
Normal Rest History Matches
24
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
0
Long Rest History Matches
25
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.47
—
Portability PPG Range
0.95
—
Portability Score
51.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-70.27
PPG-1.56
GF-1.35
GA0.98
PPG-1.80
PPG-2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-51
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Failed-to-score rate75.0%
History Matches-27
History Matches-51
Goals Mean-1.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.75
Scored 2+ rate-0.37
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
History Matches-51
Conceded Mean0.98
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Conceded 2+ rate69.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
History Matches-51
Result entropy-0.98
Stability score98.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.73
Eligible Matches-51
Lead Matches-13
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-51
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-1.58
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Long Rest History Matches-25
Current Team ELO-70.27
Current Opponent ELO70.27
Current ELO Difference-140.5
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-51
Residual Mean-0.46
Overperformance-6.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.63

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eldense B

L
Roda1–0Eldense B31 Oct · away
Pick: Roda 58% · hit
L
Eldense B2–3Soneja24 Oct · home
Pick: Eldense B 38% · missed
D
Acero1–1Eldense B17 Oct · away
Pick: Acero 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Saguntino

W
Saguntino3–1Atzeneta31 Oct · home
Pick: Saguntino 54% · hit
L
Torrellano2–1Saguntino25 Oct · away
Pick: Saguntino 42% · missed
W
Saguntino3–2Utiel4 Oct · home
Pick: Saguntino 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eldense B and Saguntino meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Eldense B win 27.2%, draw 30.2%, Saguntino win 42.6%. The pick is Saguntino win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.7%. Both teams to score: 44.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.