ScoreProb
WE League Japan Round 8 2026

Elfen Saitama W vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

Elfen Saitama W Home · Elo 1,438
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W Away · Elo 1,555
Kumagaya Athletic Stadium, Saitama Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Elfen Saitama W win
Elfen Saitama W winPick
37.4%
Draw
30.6%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Elfen Saitama W history34 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Elfen Saitama W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima W are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,438. On rating alone Sanfrecce Hiroshima W would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima W score more

    1.06 goals a game over 34 matches for Elfen Saitama W, against 1.18 over 34 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima W.

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima W concede fewer

    Elfen Saitama W concede 1.50 a game, Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 0.82.

  • Elfen Saitama W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Elfen Saitama W matches, against 29% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima W. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elfen Saitama W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1438.5
ELO
1554.5
34
ELO · Matches
34
1438.5
Current Team ELO
1554.5
1554.5
Current Opponent ELO
1438.5
-116.0
Current ELO Difference
116.0
0.34
Expected score
0.66
34
History Matches
34
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.07
44.37
Overperformance
54.68
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
34
1.03
PPG
1.62
29.4%
Win rate
41.2%
14.7%
Draw rate
38.2%
55.9%
Loss rate
20.6%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
55.9%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
29.4%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.7%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
18
0.88
PPG
1.39
23.5%
Win rate
27.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
55.6%
58.8%
Loss rate
16.7%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
27.8%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
17
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.18
52.9%
Scoring rate
70.6%
32.4%
BTTS rate
38.2%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.17
58.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
41.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
34
1.06
Goals Mean
1.18
1.30
Goals Std
1.10
52.9%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
26.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
0.82
70.6%
Conceding rate
52.9%
1.71
Goals against per game
0.78
76.5%
Conceding rate
55.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
34
1.50
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.38
Conceded Std
0.98
41.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.6%
26.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
34
0.88
Result entropy
0.96
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.33
11.98
Stability score
3.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
34
8
Lead Matches
8
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.88
10
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.79
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.18
57.89
Portability Score
84.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-116.0
PPG-0.59
GF-0.12
GA0.68
PPG0.00
PPG-0.51
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate17.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.68
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate20.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.76
Stability score8.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.60
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-26.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.03
Current Team ELO-116.0
Current Opponent ELO116.0
Current ELO Difference-232.1
Expected score-0.32
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-10.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elfen Saitama W

L
Cerezo Osaka W4–0Elfen Saitama W1 Nov · away
Pick: Cerezo Osaka W 50% · hit
L
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W4–1Elfen Saitama W24 Oct · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 74% · hit
L
Elfen Saitama W1–2Vegalta Sendai W21 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai W 42% · hit
W
Omiya Ardija Ventus W0–2Elfen Saitama W18 Oct · away
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 46% · missed
W
Elfen Saitama W2–1INAC Kobe Leonessa W30 Aug · home
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 58% · missed

Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W1–2Vegalta Sendai W1 Nov · home
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 39% · missed
L
Urawa Reds W2–0Sanfrecce Hiroshima W28 Oct · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 57% · hit
W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W1–0Parceiro Nagano W25 Oct · home
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 59% · hit
L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W2–3Tokyo Verdy Beleza W18 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 44% · hit
W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W2–0Omiya Ardija Ventus W29 Aug · home
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 42% · hit

About this match

Elfen Saitama W and Sanfrecce Hiroshima W meet in WE League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Kumagaya Athletic Stadium, Saitama. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Elfen Saitama W win 37.4%, draw 30.6%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima W win 32.0%. The pick is Elfen Saitama W win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.