ScoreProb
WE League Japan Round 8 2026

JEF United W vs Omiya Ardija Ventus W

JEF United W Home · Elo 1,431
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Omiya Ardija Ventus W Away · Elo 1,492
Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: JEF United W win
JEF United W winPick
36.3%
Draw
31.8%
Omiya Ardija Ventus W win
31.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%

How much we know

JEF United W history34 matches
Omiya Ardija Ventus W history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 18 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 03:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why JEF United W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Omiya Ardija Ventus W are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,492 against 1,431. On rating alone Omiya Ardija Ventus W would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Omiya Ardija Ventus W score far more

    0.62 goals a game over 34 matches for JEF United W, against 1.12 over 33 for Omiya Ardija Ventus W.

  • Omiya Ardija Ventus W concede fewer

    JEF United W concede 1.62 a game, Omiya Ardija Ventus W 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of JEF United W matches, against 48% for Omiya Ardija Ventus W. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
JEF United W
Omiya Ardija Ventus W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1431.3
ELO
1491.9
34
ELO · Matches
33
1431.3
Current Team ELO
1491.9
1491.9
Current Opponent ELO
1431.3
-60.59
Current ELO Difference
60.59
0.41
Expected score
0.59
34
History Matches
33
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.01
43.85
Overperformance
49.42
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
0.70
Goals for per game
0.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
33
0.79
PPG
1.27
17.6%
Win rate
30.3%
26.5%
Draw rate
36.4%
55.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
16
1.06
PPG
1.50
23.5%
Win rate
37.5%
35.3%
Draw rate
37.5%
41.2%
Loss rate
25.0%
41.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
17
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.62
Goals for per game
1.12
41.2%
Scoring rate
69.7%
32.4%
BTTS rate
57.6%
0.82
Goals for per game
1.25
41.2%
Scoring rate
81.3%
35.3%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
34
History Matches
33
0.62
Goals Mean
1.12
0.91
Goals Std
0.98
41.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
14.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
0.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.27
79.4%
Conceding rate
75.8%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.19
76.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
33
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.50
Conceded Std
1.02
41.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
33
0.89
Result entropy
1.00
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.26
10.51
Stability score
0.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
33
7
Lead Matches
11
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.73
13
Trailing Matches
10
7.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.77
Rest days
77.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.27
55.00
Portability Score
78.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-60.59
PPG-0.48
GF-0.50
GA0.34
PPG0.00
PPG-0.44
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate28.5%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate40.1%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score10.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate7.8%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-23.57
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Current Team ELO-60.59
Current Opponent ELO60.59
Current ELO Difference-121.2
Expected score-0.17
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-5.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

JEF United W

D
JEF United W0–0Nojima Stella W31 Oct · home
Pick: Nojima Stella W 40% · missed
W
Albirex Niigata W0–1JEF United W24 Oct · away
Pick: Albirex Niigata W 55% · missed
W
INAC Kobe Leonessa W1–2JEF United W21 Oct · away
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 77% · missed
W
JEF United W2–1Urawa Reds W18 Oct · home
Pick: Urawa Reds W 56% · missed
L
JEF United W1–3Cerezo Osaka W30 Aug · home
Pick: JEF United W 40% · missed

Omiya Ardija Ventus W

L
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W2–1Omiya Ardija Ventus W31 Oct · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 66% · hit
W
Parceiro Nagano W0–1Omiya Ardija Ventus W28 Oct · away
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 42% · hit
L
Omiya Ardija Ventus W1–2Cerezo Osaka W25 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 41% · missed
L
Omiya Ardija Ventus W0–2Elfen Saitama W18 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 46% · missed
L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W2–0Omiya Ardija Ventus W29 Aug · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 42% · hit

About this match

JEF United W and Omiya Ardija Ventus W meet in WE League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 03:30 UTC. The match is played at Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: JEF United W win 36.3%, draw 31.8%, Omiya Ardija Ventus W win 31.9%. The pick is JEF United W win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.0%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.