ScoreProb
Esiliiga A Estonia Round 36 2026

Elva vs Nõmme United II

Elva Home · Elo 1,547
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nõmme United II Away · Elo 1,514
Nike Arena, Elva Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Elva win
Elva winPick
61.8%
Draw
17.0%
Nõmme United II win
21.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.1%
No35.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%

How much we know

Elva history71 matches
Nõmme United II history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Elva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Elva are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,514. On rating alone Elva would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Nõmme United II score more

    1.87 goals a game over 71 matches for Elva, against 2.29 over 62 for Nõmme United II.

  • Elva concede fewer

    Elva concede 1.51 a game, Nõmme United II 1.81.

  • Nõmme United II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Elva matches, against 79% for Nõmme United II. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elva
Nõmme United II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.6
ELO
1514.2
71
ELO · Matches
62
1546.6
Current Team ELO
1514.2
1514.2
Current Opponent ELO
1546.6
32.44
Current ELO Difference
-32.44
0.55
Expected score
0.45
71
History Matches
62
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.18
Overperformance
50.77
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.80
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
0.70
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
62
1.68
PPG
1.68
50.7%
Win rate
51.6%
15.5%
Draw rate
12.9%
33.8%
Loss rate
35.5%
85.9%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
79.0%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
61.3%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
31
1.72
PPG
1.48
53.8%
Win rate
45.2%
10.3%
Draw rate
12.9%
35.9%
Loss rate
41.9%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
80.6%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
71.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
39
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
2.29
83.1%
Scoring rate
88.7%
60.6%
BTTS rate
69.4%
1.74
Goals for per game
2.35
79.5%
Scoring rate
90.3%
59.0%
BTTS rate
74.2%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
91.7%
58.3%
BTTS rate
79.2%
71
History Matches
62
1.87
Goals Mean
2.29
1.38
Goals Std
1.54
83.1%
Scored 1+ rate
88.7%
57.7%
Scored 2+ rate
64.5%
28.2%
Scored 3+ rate
41.9%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
2.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.81
76.1%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.56
Goals against per game
2.06
76.9%
Conceding rate
83.9%
1.54
Goals against per game
2.29
79.2%
Conceding rate
87.5%
71
History Matches
62
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.22
Conceded Std
1.34
45.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.8%
22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.6%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
62
0.91
Result entropy
0.89
1.94
Goal Difference Std
2.30
8.98
Stability score
11.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
62
25
Lead Matches
18
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.85
21
Trailing Matches
22
33.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
19.0%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.53
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.79
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
25
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.46
PPG
1.08
41.7%
Win rate
29.2%
20.8%
Draw rate
20.8%
37.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.46
Current Competition PPG
1.08
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.54
5
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.54
Portability PPG Range
1.25
47.47
Portability Score
48.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.44
PPG0.00
GF-0.42
GA-0.30
PPG0.38
PPG0.23
PPG0.40
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches9
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-2.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate0.7%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.71
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-0.97
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO32.44
Current Opponent ELO-32.44
Current ELO Difference64.89
Expected score0.09
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elva

D
Elva0–0Tallinna Kalev1 Nov · home
Pick: Elva 47% · missed
D
Elva3–3FCI Levadia II25 Oct · home
Pick: Elva 54% · missed
D
Nõmme Kalju II0–0Elva18 Oct · away
Pick: Elva 67% · missed
W
Nõmme United II0–1Elva30 Aug · away
Pick: Elva 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nõmme United II

W
Nõmme United II3–1FC Tallinn1 Nov · home
Pick: Nõmme United II 46% · hit
L
Flora II3–2Nõmme United II22 Oct · away
Pick: Flora II 61% · hit
L
Tartu Welco4–3Nõmme United II18 Oct · away
Pick: Tartu Welco 72% · hit
L
Nõmme United II0–1Elva30 Aug · home
Pick: Elva 47% · hit
L
Viimsi4–1Nõmme United II24 Aug · away
Pick: Viimsi 63% · hit

About this match

Elva and Nõmme United II meet in Esiliiga A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Nike Arena, Elva. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Elva win 61.8%, draw 17.0%, Nõmme United II win 21.1%. The pick is Elva win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.7%. Both teams to score: 64.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.