ScoreProb
Esiliiga A Estonia Round 36 2026

FC Tallinn vs Tallinna Kalev

FC Tallinn Home · Elo 1,456
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tallinna Kalev Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tallinna Kalev win
FC Tallinn win
36.8%
Draw
19.3%
Tallinna Kalev winPick
43.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.3%
No32.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%

How much we know

FC Tallinn history69 matches
Tallinna Kalev history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tallinna Kalev are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,456 against 1,478. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 69 matches for FC Tallinn, against 1.69 over 78 for Tallinna Kalev.

  • FC Tallinn concede fewer

    FC Tallinn concede 2.19 a game, Tallinna Kalev 2.49.

  • Tallinna Kalev games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of FC Tallinn matches, against 79% for Tallinna Kalev. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Tallinn
Tallinna Kalev
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.7
ELO
1478.0
69
ELO · Matches
78
1455.7
Current Team ELO
1478.0
1478.0
Current Opponent ELO
1455.7
-22.37
Current ELO Difference
22.37
0.47
Expected score
0.53
69
History Matches
78
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.35
Overperformance
48.85
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
3.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.40
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.58
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
78
1.13
PPG
1.05
30.4%
Win rate
32.1%
21.7%
Draw rate
9.0%
47.8%
Loss rate
59.0%
89.9%
Over 1.5 rate
93.6%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
79.5%
53.6%
Over 3.5 rate
61.5%
2.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
41
1.24
PPG
0.83
33.3%
Win rate
24.4%
24.2%
Draw rate
9.8%
42.4%
Loss rate
65.9%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
95.1%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
78.0%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
61.0%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.20
33
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.69
71.0%
Scoring rate
67.9%
59.4%
BTTS rate
55.1%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.59
75.8%
Scoring rate
65.9%
63.6%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.88
62.5%
Scoring rate
87.5%
54.2%
BTTS rate
75.0%
69
History Matches
78
1.72
Goals Mean
1.69
1.94
Goals Std
1.89
71.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.3%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.4%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.19
Goals against per game
2.49
85.5%
Conceding rate
87.2%
1.85
Goals against per game
2.56
81.8%
Conceding rate
87.8%
2.21
Goals against per game
1.88
87.5%
Conceding rate
87.5%
69
History Matches
78
2.19
Conceded Mean
2.49
1.61
Conceded Std
1.91
62.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.5%
34.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
44.9%
1.85
Venue Conceded Mean
2.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
78
0.95
Result entropy
0.81
2.76
Goal Difference Std
3.26
4.74
Stability score
18.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
78
17
Lead Matches
18
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.76
27
Trailing Matches
38
25.9%
Non-loss rate
13.2%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
1.01
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.01
1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
41
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.00
PPG
1.33
25.0%
Win rate
37.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.96
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.78
51.59
Portability Score
46.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-22.37
PPG0.08
GF0.03
GA-0.30
PPG-0.33
PPG0.41
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.15
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Conceded 2+ rate0.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score-14.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.22
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate12.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.96
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score4.73
Rest days1.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO-22.37
Current Opponent ELO22.37
Current ELO Difference-44.73
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Tallinn

L
Nõmme United II3–1FC Tallinn1 Nov · away
Pick: Nõmme United II 46% · hit
W
Nõmme Kalju II1–2FC Tallinn24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Tallinn 44% · hit
L
FC Tallinn0–3Viimsi19 Oct · home
Pick: Viimsi 56% · hit
L
FC Tallinn0–7Tartu Welco15 Oct · home
Pick: Tartu Welco 58% · hit
L
FC Tallinn0–2Nõmme Kalju II29 Aug · home
Pick: FC Tallinn 57% · missed

Tallinna Kalev

D
Elva0–0Tallinna Kalev1 Nov · away
Pick: Elva 47% · missed
W
Tallinna Kalev3–1Nõmme Kalju II29 Oct · home
Pick: Tallinna Kalev 68% · hit
L
Tartu Welco3–2Tallinna Kalev23 Oct · away
Pick: Tartu Welco 61% · hit
L
Tallinna Kalev1–2FCI Levadia II19 Oct · home
Pick: Tallinna Kalev 46% · missed
L
Flora II5–0Tallinna Kalev29 Aug · away
Pick: Flora II 47% · hit

About this match

FC Tallinn and Tallinna Kalev meet in Esiliiga A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Tallinn win 36.8%, draw 19.3%, Tallinna Kalev win 43.9%. The pick is Tallinna Kalev win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.2%. Both teams to score: 67.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.