ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Elversberg U19 vs Bochum U19

Elversberg U19 Home · Elo 1,360
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bochum U19 Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bochum U19 win
Elversberg U19 win
12.7%
Draw
13.1%
Bochum U19 winPick
74.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.8%
Under 2.529.2%

How much we know

Elversberg U19 history42 matches
Bochum U19 history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Bochum U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bochum U19 are rated 233 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,360. On rating alone Bochum U19 would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Bochum U19 score far more

    1.02 goals a game over 42 matches for Elversberg U19, against 2.81 over 43 for Bochum U19.

  • Bochum U19 concede fewer

    Elversberg U19 concede 2.55 a game, Bochum U19 1.42.

  • Bochum U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Elversberg U19 matches, against 81% for Bochum U19. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elversberg U19
Bochum U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1359.7
ELO
1592.8
42
ELO · Matches
43
1359.7
Current Team ELO
1592.8
1592.8
Current Opponent ELO
1359.7
-233.1
Current ELO Difference
233.1
0.21
Expected score
0.79
42
History Matches
43
-0.17
Residual Mean
0.12
38.72
Overperformance
57.93
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
3.20
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
2.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.61
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
43
0.57
PPG
1.98
11.9%
Win rate
65.1%
21.4%
Draw rate
2.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
32.6%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
97.7%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
81.4%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
58.1%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
19
0.35
PPG
1.58
5.0%
Win rate
52.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
47.4%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
73.7%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.2%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
20
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
2.81
66.7%
Scoring rate
90.7%
61.9%
BTTS rate
60.5%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.68
55.0%
Scoring rate
89.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
0.67
Goals for per game
3.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
43
1.02
Goals Mean
2.81
0.94
Goals Std
1.86
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
90.7%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
74.4%
4.8%
Scored 3+ rate
44.2%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
2.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.55
Goals against per game
1.42
90.5%
Conceding rate
69.8%
2.55
Goals against per game
1.47
90.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
43
2.55
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.76
Conceded Std
1.26
73.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.9%
38.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.3%
2.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
43
0.78
Result entropy
0.67
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.59
22.29
Stability score
33.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
43
7
Lead Matches
25
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.48
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
10
9.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
1.51
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.30
1.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
20
0.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.49
76.25
Portability Score
72.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-233.1
PPG-1.41
GF-1.79
GA1.13
PPG-1.67
PPG-1.23
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate24.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate34.5%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-1.79
Goals Std-0.92
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.46
Scored 3+ rate-0.39
Venue Goals Mean-1.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.67
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean1.13
Conceded Std0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate31.9%
Conceded 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Conceded Mean1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.94
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.75
Stability score-11.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.45
Lead Points Retention-0.40
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.79
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score3.78
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.51
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.51
Current Team ELO-233.1
Current Opponent ELO233.1
Current ELO Difference-466.2
Expected score-0.59
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.28
Overperformance-19.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elversberg U19

L
Alemannia Aachen U195–1Elversberg U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Alemannia Aachen U19 49% · hit
L
Elversberg U190–2Bayer Leverkusen U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 80% · hit
L
Elversberg U191–10Viktoria Köln U1918 Oct · home
Pick: Viktoria Köln U19 77% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bochum U19

D
Alemannia Aachen U190–0Bochum U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Bochum U19 62% · missed
L
Bochum U193–4Bayer Leverkusen U1918 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Elversberg U19 and Bochum U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Elversberg U19 win 12.7%, draw 13.1%, Bochum U19 win 74.2%. The pick is Bochum U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.8%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.