ScoreProb
NPFL Nigeria Round 9 2027

Enugu Rangers vs Bendel Insurance

Enugu Rangers Home · Elo 1,577
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bendel Insurance Away · Elo 1,534
Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium, Enugu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Enugu Rangers win
Enugu Rangers winPick
37.3%
Draw
36.1%
Bendel Insurance win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.8%
Under 2.560.2%

How much we know

Enugu Rangers history54 matches
Bendel Insurance history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Enugu Rangers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Enugu Rangers are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,577 against 1,534. On rating alone Enugu Rangers would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.22 goals a game over 54 matches for Enugu Rangers, against 1.14 over 56 for Bendel Insurance.

  • Enugu Rangers concede fewer

    Enugu Rangers concede 0.83 a game, Bendel Insurance 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Enugu Rangers matches, against 38% for Bendel Insurance. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Enugu Rangers
Bendel Insurance
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.3
ELO
1534.0
54
ELO · Matches
56
1577.3
Current Team ELO
1534.0
1534.0
Current Opponent ELO
1577.3
43.25
Current ELO Difference
-43.25
0.56
Expected score
0.44
54
History Matches
56
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
55.48
Overperformance
52.19
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
56
1.59
PPG
1.48
44.4%
Win rate
37.5%
25.9%
Draw rate
35.7%
29.6%
Loss rate
26.8%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
2.32
PPG
0.86
71.4%
Win rate
17.9%
17.9%
Draw rate
32.1%
10.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
1.14
64.8%
Scoring rate
69.6%
37.0%
BTTS rate
44.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.75
78.6%
Scoring rate
53.6%
32.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
54
History Matches
56
1.22
Goals Mean
1.14
1.18
Goals Std
1.03
64.8%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
0.96
51.9%
Conceding rate
60.7%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.25
39.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
54
History Matches
56
0.83
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.01
Conceded Std
0.98
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
60.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
60.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
56
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.28
2.53
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
55
20
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
8
10.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
164.0
Rest days
151.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
36
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
15
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.66
Portability PPG Range
0.18
60.08
Portability Score
84.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO43.25
PPG0.11
GF0.08
GA-0.13
PPG1.46
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate32.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score1.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.49
Portability Score-24.76
Rest days13.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.83
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO43.25
Current Opponent ELO-43.25
Current ELO Difference86.51
Expected score0.12
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Enugu Rangers

D
Rivers United1–1Enugu Rangers1 Nov · away
Pick: Rivers United 45% · missed
L
MC Alger3–0Enugu Rangers23 Oct · away
Pick: MC Alger 53% · hit
W
Enugu Rangers2–0MC Alger18 Oct · home
Pick: MC Alger 43% · missed
W
Enugu Rangers3–1Abia Warriors4 Oct · home
Pick: Enugu Rangers 38% · hit
D
Enugu Rangers1–1Katsina United30 Aug · home
Pick: Enugu Rangers 48% · missed

Bendel Insurance

W
Kwara United1–2Bendel Insurance1 Nov · away
Pick: Kwara United 41% · missed
W
Bendel Insurance2–1Rivers United25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
W
Bendel Insurance4–1Barau FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Bendel Insurance 50% · hit
W
Bendel Insurance2–1Warri Wolves30 Aug · home
Pick: Bendel Insurance 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Enugu Rangers and Bendel Insurance meet in NPFL on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium, Enugu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Enugu Rangers win 37.3%, draw 36.1%, Bendel Insurance win 26.5%. The pick is Enugu Rangers win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.8%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.