ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Algeria Round 9 2026

ES Setif vs MB Rouisset

ES Setif Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
MB Rouisset Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ES Setif win
ES Setif winPick
45.3%
Draw
30.5%
MB Rouisset win
24.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.3%
Under 2.562.7%

How much we know

ES Setif history50 matches
MB Rouisset history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why ES Setif are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,530 against 1,521. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • MB Rouisset score more

    0.94 goals a game over 50 matches for ES Setif, against 1.20 over 45 for MB Rouisset.

  • Defences are close

    ES Setif concede 0.96 a game, MB Rouisset 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    26% of ES Setif matches, against 33% for MB Rouisset. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ES Setif
MB Rouisset
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.1
ELO
1520.8
50
ELO · Matches
45
1530.1
Current Team ELO
1520.8
1520.8
Current Opponent ELO
1530.1
9.36
Current ELO Difference
-9.36
0.51
Expected score
0.49
50
History Matches
45
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.64
Overperformance
51.42
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
45
1.40
PPG
1.53
38.0%
Win rate
42.2%
26.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
36.0%
Loss rate
31.1%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
26.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
2.09
PPG
0.83
60.9%
Win rate
17.4%
26.1%
Draw rate
30.4%
13.0%
Loss rate
52.2%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.06
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.94
Goals for per game
1.20
62.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
32.0%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.87
87.0%
Scoring rate
60.9%
43.5%
BTTS rate
56.5%
50
History Matches
45
0.94
Goals Mean
1.20
1.03
Goals Std
1.00
62.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
18.0%
Scored 2+ rate
26.7%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
0.98
60.0%
Conceding rate
64.4%
0.65
Goals against per game
1.35
52.2%
Conceding rate
87.0%
50
History Matches
45
0.96
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.11
Conceded Std
0.91
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
45
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.36
1.17
Stability score
1.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
45
13
Lead Matches
19
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.84
8
Trailing Matches
11
12.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
155.0
Rest days
155.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.03
Portability PPG Range
1.16
51.05
Portability Score
46.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO9.36
PPG-0.13
GF-0.26
GA-0.02
PPG1.26
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate34.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.29
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate5.7%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score4.69
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO9.36
Current Opponent ELO-9.36
Current ELO Difference18.71
Expected score0.03
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ES Setif

W
ASO Chlef1–2ES Setif30 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
L
ES Setif1–2Témouchent24 Oct · home
Pick: ES Setif 38% · missed
D
ES Setif1–1JS Kabylie14 Oct · home
Pick: JS Kabylie 37% · missed
D
MC Oran0–0ES Setif8 Oct · away
Pick: MC Oran 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

MB Rouisset

D
MB Rouisset1–1Ben Aknoun31 Oct · home
Pick: MB Rouisset 34% · missed
D
ASO Chlef1–1MB Rouisset24 Oct · away
Pick: ASO Chlef 38% · missed
W
MB Rouisset1–0JS Saoura18 Oct · home
Pick: JS Saoura 35% · missed
W
Témouchent0–2MB Rouisset14 Oct · away
Pick: Témouchent 46% · missed
W
MB Rouisset1–0USM Alger8 Oct · home
Pick: USM Alger 43% · missed

About this match

ES Setif and MB Rouisset meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ES Setif win 45.3%, draw 30.5%, MB Rouisset win 24.2%. The pick is ES Setif win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.3%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.