ScoreProb
Ettan - Södra Sweden Södra - 30 2026

Eskilsminne vs Atvidabergs FF

Eskilsminne Home · Elo 1,490
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atvidabergs FF Away · Elo 1,645
Harlyckan, Helsingborg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atvidabergs FF win
Eskilsminne win
34.8%
Draw
20.1%
Atvidabergs FF winPick
45.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%

How much we know

Eskilsminne history63 matches
Atvidabergs FF history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atvidabergs FF are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atvidabergs FF are rated 154 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,645 against 1,490. On rating alone Atvidabergs FF would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Atvidabergs FF score far more

    1.51 goals a game over 63 matches for Eskilsminne, against 2.35 over 49 for Atvidabergs FF.

  • Atvidabergs FF concede fewer

    Eskilsminne concede 1.75 a game, Atvidabergs FF 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Eskilsminne matches, against 61% for Atvidabergs FF. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eskilsminne
Atvidabergs FF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.4
ELO
1644.5
63
ELO · Matches
49
1490.4
Current Team ELO
1644.5
1644.5
Current Opponent ELO
1490.4
-154.1
Current ELO Difference
154.1
0.29
Expected score
0.71
63
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.15
49.43
Overperformance
60.31
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.10
1.50
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
49
1.21
PPG
2.22
30.2%
Win rate
67.3%
30.2%
Draw rate
20.4%
39.7%
Loss rate
12.2%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.2%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
24
1.29
PPG
2.08
32.3%
Win rate
62.5%
32.3%
Draw rate
20.8%
35.5%
Loss rate
16.7%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
31
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
2.35
77.8%
Scoring rate
87.8%
63.5%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.48
Goals for per game
2.13
74.2%
Scoring rate
79.2%
54.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.11
77.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
61.1%
63
History Matches
49
1.51
Goals Mean
2.35
1.18
Goals Std
1.72
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
87.8%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
61.2%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
42.9%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
2.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
0.98
79.4%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.08
71.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.72
Goals against per game
1.28
72.2%
Conceding rate
72.2%
63
History Matches
49
1.75
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.41
Conceded Std
0.91
54.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
23.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.2%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.2%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.77
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.01
0.80
Stability score
22.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
48
23
Lead Matches
24
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.94
22
Trailing Matches
8
27.3%
Non-loss rate
62.5%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.90
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.39
PPG
1.94
38.9%
Win rate
55.6%
22.2%
Draw rate
27.8%
38.9%
Loss rate
16.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.39
Current Competition PPG
1.94
-0.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.83
6
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.64
Portability PPG Range
0.94
67.83
Portability Score
56.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-154.1
PPG-1.02
GF-0.84
GA0.77
PPG-0.56
PPG-0.79
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate10.0%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.84
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.77
Conceded Std0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate17.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches14
Result entropy0.22
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-22.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.56
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.89
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score11.50
Rest days-3.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Current Team ELO-154.1
Current Opponent ELO154.1
Current ELO Difference-308.2
Expected score-0.42
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eskilsminne

L
Kristianstad3–0Eskilsminne31 Oct · away
Pick: Eskilsminne 42% · missed
L
Eskilsminne1–4Lund24 Oct · home
Pick: Lund 40% · hit
D
Skövde AIK2–2Eskilsminne17 Oct · away
Pick: Eskilsminne 40% · missed
L
Eskilsminne0–2Hässleholms IF29 Aug · home
Pick: Hässleholms IF 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atvidabergs FF

L
Atvidabergs FF1–2Utsikten1 Nov · home
Pick: Atvidabergs FF 76% · missed
L
Trelleborg3–1Atvidabergs FF25 Oct · away
Pick: Trelleborg 48% · hit
L
Atvidabergs FF1–2Hässleholms IF17 Oct · home
Pick: Atvidabergs FF 42% · missed
L
Kristianstad5–2Atvidabergs FF29 Aug · away
Pick: Atvidabergs FF 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eskilsminne and Atvidabergs FF meet in Ettan - Södra on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Harlyckan, Helsingborg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Eskilsminne win 34.8%, draw 20.1%, Atvidabergs FF win 45.1%. The pick is Atvidabergs FF win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.6%. Both teams to score: 56.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.