ScoreProb
Ettan - Södra Sweden Södra - 30 2026

Tvååker vs Lund

Tvååker Home · Elo 1,609
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lund Away · Elo 1,542
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tvååker win
Tvååker winPick
43.8%
Draw
21.0%
Lund win
35.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Tvååker history55 matches
Lund history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tvååker are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tvååker are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,609 against 1,542. On rating alone Tvååker would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Tvååker score more

    2.33 goals a game over 55 matches for Tvååker, against 1.60 over 60 for Lund.

  • Tvååker concede fewer

    Tvååker concede 1.20 a game, Lund 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Tvååker matches, against 63% for Lund. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tvååker
Lund
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1609.0
ELO
1542.5
55
ELO · Matches
60
1609.0
Current Team ELO
1542.5
1542.5
Current Opponent ELO
1609.0
66.53
Current ELO Difference
-66.53
0.59
Expected score
0.41
55
History Matches
60
0.10
Residual Mean
0.03
57.12
Overperformance
52.14
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
60
1.95
PPG
1.48
58.2%
Win rate
41.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
21.8%
Loss rate
35.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
32
2.04
PPG
1.16
60.7%
Win rate
28.1%
21.4%
Draw rate
31.3%
17.9%
Loss rate
40.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
28
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.33
Goals for per game
1.60
90.9%
Scoring rate
81.7%
61.8%
BTTS rate
56.7%
2.39
Goals for per game
1.41
92.9%
Scoring rate
71.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.89
88.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
61.1%
55
History Matches
60
2.33
Goals Mean
1.60
1.74
Goals Std
1.28
90.9%
Scored 1+ rate
81.7%
56.4%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.37
67.3%
Conceding rate
68.3%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.44
60.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.33
72.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
60
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.13
Conceded Std
1.18
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
60
0.88
Result entropy
0.98
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.75
11.78
Stability score
2.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
59
28
Lead Matches
18
89.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.87
10
Trailing Matches
18
40.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.13
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
29
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.56
PPG
1.72
44.4%
Win rate
44.4%
22.2%
Draw rate
38.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.56
Current Competition PPG
1.72
-0.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.56
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.84
Portability PPG Range
0.32
58.19
Portability Score
78.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO66.53
PPG0.46
GF0.73
GA-0.17
PPG-0.17
PPG0.88
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.73
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate9.2%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.99
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score9.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.89
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate6.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate17.8%
Trailing Win Rate14.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.61
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.52
Portability Score-20.56
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO66.53
Current Opponent ELO-66.53
Current ELO Difference133.1
Expected score0.19
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tvååker

L
Angelholms FF1–0Tvååker31 Oct · away
Pick: Angelholms FF 39% · hit
W
Utsikten1–4Tvååker23 Oct · away
Pick: Tvååker 60% · hit
D
Tvååker1–1Rosengård17 Oct · home
Pick: Tvååker 46% · missed
D
Laholm1–1Tvååker12 Oct · away
Pick: Tvååker 46% · missed
D
Tvååker1–1Skövde AIK29 Aug · home
Pick: Tvååker 61% · missed

Lund

W
Lund1–0Jonkopings Sodra31 Oct · home
Pick: Lund 46% · hit
W
Eskilsminne1–4Lund24 Oct · away
Pick: Lund 40% · hit
L
Lund2–4Trelleborg16 Oct · home
Pick: Trelleborg 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tvååker and Lund meet in Ettan - Södra on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tvååker win 43.8%, draw 21.0%, Lund win 35.2%. The pick is Tvååker win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.