ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 2 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 2 - 10 2026

Eskişehirspor vs Kepezspor

Eskişehirspor Home · Elo 1,628
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kepezspor Away · Elo 1,379
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eskişehirspor win
Eskişehirspor winPick
53.6%
Draw
26.2%
Kepezspor win
20.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%

How much we know

Eskişehirspor history36 matches
Kepezspor history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Eskişehirspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Eskişehirspor are rated 249 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,628 against 1,379. On rating alone Eskişehirspor would be expected to take 81% of the points on offer.

  • Eskişehirspor score far more

    2.22 goals a game over 36 matches for Eskişehirspor, against 0.94 over 53 for Kepezspor.

  • Eskişehirspor concede fewer

    Eskişehirspor concede 0.72 a game, Kepezspor 1.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Eskişehirspor matches, against 55% for Kepezspor. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eskişehirspor
Kepezspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1628.1
ELO
1379.2
36
ELO · Matches
53
1628.1
Current Team ELO
1379.2
1379.2
Current Opponent ELO
1628.1
248.9
Current ELO Difference
-248.9
0.81
Expected score
0.19
36
History Matches
53
0.17
Residual Mean
-0.11
61.25
Overperformance
42.01
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
3.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.30
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.50
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
53
2.17
PPG
0.75
66.7%
Win rate
17.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
24.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
58.5%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
26
2.33
PPG
0.88
72.2%
Win rate
19.2%
16.7%
Draw rate
30.8%
11.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
18
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.22
Goals for per game
0.94
80.6%
Scoring rate
66.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
56.6%
2.22
Goals for per game
0.92
83.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
27.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
36
History Matches
53
2.22
Goals Mean
0.94
2.02
Goals Std
0.92
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
20.8%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
3.8%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.72
Goals against per game
1.92
47.2%
Conceding rate
83.0%
0.61
Goals against per game
1.65
38.9%
Conceding rate
84.6%
36
History Matches
53
0.72
Conceded Mean
1.92
0.90
Conceded Std
1.54
19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.8%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.1%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
52.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
61.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
52.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
61.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
52.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
53
0.79
Result entropy
0.87
2.42
Goal Difference Std
1.86
21.03
Stability score
12.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
53
18
Lead Matches
5
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.60
4
Trailing Matches
25
25.0%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
1.39
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.8
Rest days
196.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.69
10
Long Rest History Matches
12
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.37
Portability PPG Range
0.69
42.25
Portability Score
63.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO248.9
PPG1.41
GF1.28
GA-1.20
PPG1.45
PPG1.40
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate35.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate45.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-17
Goals Mean1.28
Goals Std1.10
Scored 1+ rate14.5%
Scored 2+ rate34.8%
Scored 3+ rate29.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.75
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-1.20
Conceded Std-0.64
Clean-sheet rate35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.99
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score8.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate34.4%
Lead Points Retention0.36
Trailing Matches-21
Non-loss rate9.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-21.46
Rest days-13.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.06
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match2.00
Current Team ELO248.9
Current Opponent ELO-248.9
Current ELO Difference497.8
Expected score0.61
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.29
Overperformance19.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eskişehirspor

W
Gaziemirspor0–5Eskişehirspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Eskişehirspor 42% · hit
W
Eskişehirspor1–0Iğdır FK29 Oct · home
Pick: Iğdır FK 40% · missed
D
Eskişehirspor2–2Bursa Yıldırımspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Eskişehirspor 45% · missed
W
Altay1–4Eskişehirspor17 Oct · away
Pick: Eskişehirspor 41% · hit
W
Eskişehirspor4–1Akşehirspor7 Oct · home
Pick: Eskişehirspor 71% · hit

Kepezspor

W
Kepezspor2–0Uşak Spor31 Oct · home
Pick: Uşak Spor 38% · missed
W
Alanya 1221 FK1–2Kepezspor25 Oct · away
Pick: Alanya 1221 FK 42% · missed
L
Kepezspor1–3Bucaspor 192818 Oct · home
Pick: Bucaspor 1928 36% · hit
L
Anadolu Üniversitesi4–2Kepezspor7 Oct · away
Pick: Anadolu Üniversitesi 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eskişehirspor and Kepezspor meet in 3. Lig - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Eskişehirspor win 53.6%, draw 26.2%, Kepezspor win 20.3%. The pick is Eskişehirspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.