ScoreProb
NB III - Southeast Hungary Southeast - 15 2026

ESMTK vs III. Kerületi TUE

ESMTK Home · Elo 1,647
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
III. Kerületi TUE Away · Elo 1,645
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: III. Kerületi TUE win
ESMTK win
32.4%
Draw
26.2%
III. Kerületi TUE winPick
41.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

ESMTK history53 matches
III. Kerületi TUE history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why III. Kerületi TUE are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,647 against 1,645. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.34 goals a game over 53 matches for ESMTK, against 2.22 over 54 for III. Kerületi TUE.

  • ESMTK concede fewer

    ESMTK concede 0.83 a game, III. Kerületi TUE 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of ESMTK matches, against 67% for III. Kerületi TUE. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ESMTK
III. Kerületi TUE
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1647.4
ELO
1645.4
53
ELO · Matches
54
1647.4
Current Team ELO
1645.4
1645.4
Current Opponent ELO
1647.4
2.01
Current ELO Difference
-2.01
0.50
Expected score
0.50
53
History Matches
54
0.13
Residual Mean
0.13
59.27
Overperformance
59.42
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.40
2.90
Goals for per game
2.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.11
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
54
2.13
PPG
2.07
66.0%
Win rate
63.0%
15.1%
Draw rate
18.5%
18.9%
Loss rate
18.5%
86.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
28
2.21
PPG
1.86
66.7%
Win rate
57.1%
20.8%
Draw rate
14.3%
12.5%
Loss rate
28.6%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
24
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.34
Goals for per game
2.22
84.9%
Scoring rate
88.9%
43.4%
BTTS rate
63.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.89
87.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
37.5%
BTTS rate
64.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
53
History Matches
54
2.34
Goals Mean
2.22
1.75
Goals Std
1.52
84.9%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
66.0%
Scored 2+ rate
63.0%
45.3%
Scored 3+ rate
42.6%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.83
Goals against per game
1.13
50.9%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.43
41.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
53
History Matches
54
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.13
0.93
Conceded Std
1.19
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
54
0.80
Result entropy
0.83
2.18
Goal Difference Std
1.99
20.44
Stability score
16.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
54
24
Lead Matches
24
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
9
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
1.04
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.28
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.07
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.45
Portability PPG Range
1.15
71.53
Portability Score
53.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO2.01
PPG0.06
GF0.12
GA-0.30
PPG-1.25
PPG0.35
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate3.1%
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.11
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score3.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score18.24
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO2.01
Current Opponent ELO-2.01
Current ELO Difference4.02
Expected score0.01
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ESMTK

D
Gyulai Termál1–1ESMTK31 Oct · away
Pick: Gyulai Termál 51% · missed
W
ESMTK2–1Újpest II25 Oct · home
Pick: ESMTK 52% · hit
W
Szolnoki MAV FC2–3ESMTK17 Oct · away
Pick: ESMTK 64% · hit
D
Bekescsaba 19123–3ESMTK29 Aug · away
Pick: ESMTK 52% · missed
W
ESMTK3–0Sándorfalva26 Aug · home
Pick: ESMTK 92% · hit

III. Kerületi TUE

L
III. Kerületi TUE1–2Monori Se31 Oct · home
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 57% · missed
L
III. Kerületi TUE0–1Gyulai Termál24 Oct · home
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 43% · missed
D
Újpest II0–0III. Kerületi TUE18 Oct · away
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 53% · missed
L
Honvéd II1–0III. Kerületi TUE4 Oct · away
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 63% · missed
L
Vasas II3–0III. Kerületi TUE30 Aug · away
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 50% · missed

About this match

ESMTK and III. Kerületi TUE meet in NB III - Southeast on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: ESMTK win 32.4%, draw 26.2%, III. Kerületi TUE win 41.4%. The pick is III. Kerületi TUE win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.