ScoreProb
NB III - Southeast Hungary Southeast - 15 2026

Vasas II vs Dabas

Vasas II Home · Elo 1,575
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dabas Away · Elo 1,522
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vasas II win
Vasas II winPick
38.9%
Draw
26.2%
Dabas win
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%

How much we know

Vasas II history47 matches
Dabas history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Vasas II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vasas II are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,522. On rating alone Vasas II would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Vasas II score more

    2.09 goals a game over 47 matches for Vasas II, against 1.55 over 49 for Dabas.

  • Defences are close

    Vasas II concede 1.32 a game, Dabas 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Vasas II matches, against 69% for Dabas. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vasas II
Dabas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.8
ELO
1522.4
47
ELO · Matches
49
1574.8
Current Team ELO
1522.4
1522.4
Current Opponent ELO
1574.8
52.36
Current ELO Difference
-52.36
0.57
Expected score
0.43
47
History Matches
49
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
55.58
Overperformance
51.52
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
2.60
Goals for per game
2.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
2.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
49
1.83
PPG
1.47
51.1%
Win rate
44.9%
29.8%
Draw rate
12.2%
19.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
89.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
68.1%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.79
PPG
1.68
50.0%
Win rate
52.0%
29.2%
Draw rate
12.0%
20.8%
Loss rate
36.0%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
79.2%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
1.55
85.1%
Scoring rate
83.7%
57.4%
BTTS rate
65.3%
2.38
Goals for per game
1.80
91.7%
Scoring rate
88.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
64.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
49
2.09
Goals Mean
1.55
1.43
Goals Std
1.26
85.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
68.1%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
34.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.45
70.2%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.32
75.0%
Conceding rate
72.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
49
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.29
Conceded Std
1.21
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
14.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
49
0.93
Result entropy
0.89
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.98
7.11
Stability score
10.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
44
18
Lead Matches
20
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.72
11
Trailing Matches
9
45.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.04
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
25
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
2.25
25.0%
Win rate
75.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
2.25
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
4
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.85
57.53
Portability Score
56.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO52.36
PPG0.36
GF0.53
GA-0.13
PPG-1.00
PPG0.11
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate27.3%
Scored 3+ rate15.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-3.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.10
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate45.5%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score0.67
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.54
Current Team ELO52.36
Current Opponent ELO-52.36
Current ELO Difference104.7
Expected score0.15
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vasas II

D
Vasas II3–3Szeged-Csanád II31 Oct · home
Pick: Vasas II 42% · missed
D
Monori Se1–1Vasas II24 Oct · away
Pick: Monori Se 47% · missed
D
Vasas II2–2Bekescsaba 191217 Oct · home
Pick: Vasas II 52% · missed
W
Vasas II3–0III. Kerületi TUE30 Aug · home
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 50% · missed
L
Gyulai Termál1–0Vasas II26 Aug · away
Pick: Gyulai Termál 66% · hit

Dabas

W
Dabas2–1Bekescsaba 19121 Nov · home
Pick: Dabas 52% · hit
D
Sándorfalva0–0Dabas24 Oct · away
Pick: Dabas 64% · missed
L
Dabas4–5BKV Előre18 Oct · home
Pick: Dabas 68% · missed
W
Dabas1–0Csepel4 Oct · home
Pick: Dabas 58% · hit
L
Dabas1–2Újpest II30 Aug · home
Pick: Újpest II 41% · hit

About this match

Vasas II and Dabas meet in NB III - Southeast on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vasas II win 38.9%, draw 26.2%, Dabas win 34.8%. The pick is Vasas II win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.6%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.