ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 5 2026

Espanyol II vs Náxara

Espanyol II Home · Elo 1,541
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Náxara Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Espanyol II win
Espanyol II winPick
44.4%
Draw
27.6%
Náxara win
28.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Espanyol II history58 matches
Náxara history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Espanyol II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,541 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Náxara score more

    1.26 goals a game over 58 matches for Espanyol II, against 1.62 over 53 for Náxara.

  • Defences are close

    Espanyol II concede 1.07 a game, Náxara 1.13.

  • Náxara games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Espanyol II matches, against 51% for Náxara. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Espanyol II
Náxara
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.2
ELO
1531.0
58
ELO · Matches
53
1541.2
Current Team ELO
1531.0
1531.0
Current Opponent ELO
1541.2
10.20
Current ELO Difference
-10.20
0.51
Expected score
0.49
58
History Matches
53
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.83
Overperformance
51.89
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
53
1.43
PPG
1.60
34.5%
Win rate
47.2%
39.7%
Draw rate
18.9%
25.9%
Loss rate
34.0%
63.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
27
1.63
PPG
1.59
43.3%
Win rate
48.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
14.8%
23.3%
Loss rate
37.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
30
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
1.62
70.7%
Scoring rate
77.4%
55.2%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.52
76.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
58
History Matches
53
1.26
Goals Mean
1.62
1.20
Goals Std
1.43
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.4%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.13
65.5%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.26
70.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
58
History Matches
53
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.01
Conceded Std
1.15
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
53
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.24
Goal Difference Std
2.07
1.36
Stability score
5.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
53
18
Lead Matches
21
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.84
10
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.35
Rest days
81.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.68
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.36
50.58
Portability Score
42.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.20
PPG-0.17
GF-0.36
GA-0.06
PPG0.04
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.83
Stability score-4.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate31.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score8.15
Rest days-7.63
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO10.20
Current Opponent ELO-10.20
Current ELO Difference20.40
Expected score0.03
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Espanyol II

W
UD Logroñés II1–3Espanyol II1 Nov · away
Pick: Espanyol II 45% · hit
W
Espanyol II1–0Osasuna II25 Oct · home
Pick: Espanyol II 41% · hit
D
Reddis1–1Espanyol II18 Oct · away
Pick: Reddis 38% · missed
W
Vilassar Mar0–2Espanyol II30 Aug · away
Pick: Espanyol II 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Náxara

D
Náxara1–1Utebo31 Oct · home
Pick: Náxara 37% · missed
L
Girona II3–0Náxara25 Oct · away
Pick: Náxara 37% · missed
D
SD Logroñés1–1Náxara18 Oct · away
Pick: SD Logroñés 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Espanyol II and Náxara meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Espanyol II win 44.4%, draw 27.6%, Náxara win 28.0%. The pick is Espanyol II win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.