ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Girona II vs Olot

Girona II Home · Elo 1,547
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olot Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olot win
Girona II win
35.0%
Draw
28.1%
Olot winPick
36.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%

How much we know

Girona II history55 matches
Olot history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Olot are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Girona II are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,475. On rating alone Girona II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Girona II score more

    1.35 goals a game over 55 matches for Girona II, against 0.95 over 55 for Olot.

  • Defences are close

    Girona II concede 1.05 a game, Olot 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Girona II matches, against 35% for Olot. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Girona II
Olot
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.7
ELO
1475.4
55
ELO · Matches
55
1546.7
Current Team ELO
1475.4
1475.4
Current Opponent ELO
1546.7
71.25
Current ELO Difference
-71.25
0.60
Expected score
0.40
55
History Matches
55
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.66
Overperformance
48.96
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.70
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.56
PPG
1.27
41.8%
Win rate
30.9%
30.9%
Draw rate
34.5%
27.3%
Loss rate
34.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.2%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
34.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.4%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.88
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
24.0%
38.5%
Draw rate
28.0%
11.5%
Loss rate
48.0%
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
32.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
0.95
70.9%
Scoring rate
61.8%
52.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
0.80
76.9%
Scoring rate
56.0%
57.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
55
History Matches
55
1.35
Goals Mean
0.95
1.39
Goals Std
1.00
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
61.8%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
23.6%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
5.5%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.05
Goals against per game
1.13
70.9%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.24
65.4%
Conceding rate
72.0%
55
History Matches
55
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.13
0.96
Conceded Std
1.16
23.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.50
1.53
Stability score
0.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
55
10
Lead Matches
14
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.69
14
Trailing Matches
17
42.9%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.2
Rest days
84.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
36
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.28
Portability PPG Range
1.33
46.59
Portability Score
47.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO71.25
PPG0.29
GF0.40
GA-0.07
PPG0.88
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score1.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate32.9%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate19.3%
Trailing Win Rate21.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score-1.02
Rest days104.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO71.25
Current Opponent ELO-71.25
Current ELO Difference142.5
Expected score0.20
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Girona II

W
Calamocha0–1Girona II31 Oct · away
Pick: Calamocha 38% · missed
W
Girona II3–0Náxara25 Oct · home
Pick: Náxara 37% · missed
L
Terrassa1–0Girona II21 Oct · away
Pick: Girona II 38% · missed
W
Ebro0–1Girona II17 Oct · away
Pick: Ebro 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Olot

W
Olot1–0Manresa1 Nov · home
Pick: Manresa 37% · missed
W
Olot2–0Barcelona B25 Oct · home
Pick: Olot 45% · hit
D
Osasuna II0–0Olot17 Oct · away
Pick: Osasuna II 44% · missed
W
UD Logroñés II2–4Olot4 Oct · away
Pick: Olot 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Girona II and Olot meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Girona II win 35.0%, draw 28.1%, Olot win 36.9%. The pick is Olot win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.1%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.