ScoreProb
Primeira Liga Portugal Round 11 2026

Estrela vs Benfica

Estrela Home · Elo 1,475
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Benfica Away · Elo 1,707
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Benfica win
Estrela win
11.9%
Draw
22.3%
Benfica winPick
65.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Estrela history60 matches
Benfica history91 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 20:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Benfica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Benfica are rated 233 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,707 against 1,475. On rating alone Benfica would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Benfica score far more

    1.07 goals a game over 60 matches for Estrela, against 2.20 over 91 for Benfica.

  • Benfica concede fewer

    Estrela concede 1.48 a game, Benfica 0.85.

  • Benfica games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Estrela matches, against 60% for Benfica. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estrela
Benfica
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.8
ELO
1707.3
60
ELO · Matches
91
1474.8
Current Team ELO
1707.3
1707.3
Current Opponent ELO
1474.8
-232.5
Current ELO Difference
232.5
0.21
Expected score
0.79
60
History Matches
91
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
48.72
Overperformance
59.30
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
2.00
Goals for per game
4.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
3.30
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.15
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
91
1.02
PPG
2.15
23.3%
Win rate
64.8%
31.7%
Draw rate
20.9%
45.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.2%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
44
1.19
PPG
2.16
29.0%
Win rate
65.9%
32.3%
Draw rate
18.2%
38.7%
Loss rate
15.9%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
31
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
2.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
89.0%
43.3%
BTTS rate
47.3%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.89
64.5%
Scoring rate
84.1%
41.9%
BTTS rate
43.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
4.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
91
1.07
Goals Mean
2.20
1.18
Goals Std
1.51
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
89.0%
28.3%
Scored 2+ rate
65.9%
11.7%
Scored 3+ rate
35.2%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
0.85
73.3%
Conceding rate
54.9%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.77
67.7%
Conceding rate
52.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
91
1.48
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.23
Conceded Std
0.91
48.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
0.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.7%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.7%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
91
0.97
Result entropy
0.81
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.92
3.24
Stability score
19.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
91
11
Lead Matches
52
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.94
18
Trailing Matches
10
22.2%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.25
Rest days
83.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.57
28
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.15
27
Long Rest History Matches
12
0.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.50
6
Competition Season Count
13
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.20
Portability PPG Range
1.24
47.74
Portability Score
52.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
91
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-232.5
PPG-1.14
GF-1.13
GA0.64
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.97
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate29.0%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate19.6%
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-1.13
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.38
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.28
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean0.64
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-31
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-16.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.67
Eligible Matches-35
Lead Matches-41
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-35
First Half Goals For Mean-0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.50
Competition Season Count-7
Eligible Competition Season Count-5
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score-4.83
Rest days2.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Normal Rest History Matches-43
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.94
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.09
Current Team ELO-232.5
Current Opponent ELO232.5
Current ELO Difference-465.0
Expected score-0.58
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-10.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Estrela

L
Moreirense2–1Estrela31 Oct · away
Pick: Estrela 38% · missed
L
Estrela0–2Casa Pia24 Oct · home
Pick: Estrela 59% · missed
W
Fazendense1–2Estrela17 Oct · away
Pick: Estrela 45% · hit
W
Nacional2–3Estrela30 Aug · away
Pick: Nacional 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Benfica

W
Benfica1–0Alverca2 Nov · home
Pick: Benfica 73% · hit
W
Benfica4–1GIL Vicente29 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica 62% · hit
W
Santa Clara1–2Benfica26 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica 54% · hit
W
Omonia Nicosia1–4Benfica22 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica 45% · hit
W
Benfica4–1Celtic15 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica 38% · hit

About this match

Estrela and Benfica meet in Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 20:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Estrela win 11.9%, draw 22.3%, Benfica win 65.8%. The pick is Benfica win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.