ScoreProb
Primeira Liga Portugal Round 11 2026

Rio Ave vs SC Braga

Rio Ave Home · Elo 1,490
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SC Braga Away · Elo 1,678
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SC Braga win
Rio Ave win
19.9%
Draw
30.1%
SC Braga winPick
50.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%

How much we know

Rio Ave history62 matches
SC Braga history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 20:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why SC Braga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC Braga are rated 188 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,678 against 1,490. On rating alone SC Braga would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • SC Braga score more

    1.24 goals a game over 62 matches for Rio Ave, against 1.81 over 90 for SC Braga.

  • SC Braga concede fewer

    Rio Ave concede 1.55 a game, SC Braga 0.86.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Rio Ave matches, against 53% for SC Braga. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rio Ave
SC Braga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.2
ELO
1678.0
62
ELO · Matches
90
1490.2
Current Team ELO
1678.0
1678.0
Current Opponent ELO
1490.2
-187.8
Current ELO Difference
187.8
0.25
Expected score
0.75
62
History Matches
90
0.00
Residual Mean
0.09
49.94
Overperformance
57.76
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
90
1.15
PPG
1.97
27.4%
Win rate
56.7%
32.3%
Draw rate
26.7%
40.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
27.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
46
1.18
PPG
1.72
27.3%
Win rate
47.8%
36.4%
Draw rate
28.3%
36.4%
Loss rate
23.9%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
33
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.81
69.4%
Scoring rate
88.9%
56.5%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.52
72.7%
Scoring rate
84.8%
63.6%
BTTS rate
52.2%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
90
1.24
Goals Mean
1.81
1.09
Goals Std
1.27
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
0.86
82.3%
Conceding rate
54.4%
1.52
Goals against per game
0.93
84.8%
Conceding rate
58.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
90
1.55
Conceded Mean
0.86
1.13
Conceded Std
0.93
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
21.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
90
0.99
Result entropy
0.89
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.58
1.15
Stability score
11.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
88
11
Lead Matches
42
36.4%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.87
25
Trailing Matches
18
28.0%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
12.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.15
Rest days
87.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
37
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
11
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.76
45.68
Portability Score
65.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-187.8
PPG-0.82
GF-0.57
GA0.69
PPG0.00
PPG-0.54
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate19.5%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate12.1%
History Matches-28
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean0.69
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate17.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-28
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score-10.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.59
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-31
Lead Win Rate-0.47
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-19.90
Rest days-9.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-32
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Current Team ELO-187.8
Current Opponent ELO187.8
Current ELO Difference-375.6
Expected score-0.49
History Matches-28
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rio Ave

L
Academico Viseu2–1Rio Ave1 Nov · away
Pick: Academico Viseu 45% · hit
L
Rio Ave0–4Famalicao25 Oct · home
Pick: Rio Ave 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SC Braga

W
SC Braga3–0Famalicao1 Nov · home
Pick: SC Braga 54% · hit
L
Nacional1–0SC Braga25 Oct · away
Pick: SC Braga 40% · missed
W
SC Braga2–0Gent22 Oct · home
Pick: SC Braga 57% · hit
L
SC Braga1–2GIL Vicente19 Oct · home
Pick: SC Braga 48% · missed
L
FC Copenhagen3–0SC Braga15 Oct · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 46% · hit

About this match

Rio Ave and SC Braga meet in Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 20:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rio Ave win 19.9%, draw 30.1%, SC Braga win 50.0%. The pick is SC Braga win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.6%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.