Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua
Estrella Roja
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
CD Motagua
Match result probability Model pick: Estrella Roja win
Estrella Roja winPick
37.5%
Draw
29.8%
CD Motagua win
32.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.4%
No43.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%
How much we know
Estrella Roja history0 matches
CD Motagua history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Estrella Roja
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 22:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre4 Nov · 23:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Estrella Roja are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
CD Motagua are rated 68 Elo points higher
Elo 1,568 against 1,500. On rating alone CD Motagua would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estrella Roja
CD Motagua
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1568.0
0
ELO · Matches
71
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1568.0
1568.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-68.00
Current ELO Difference
68.00
0.40
Expected score
0.60
0
History Matches
71
—
Residual Mean
0.05
—
Overperformance
53.60
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.40
—
Goals for per game
1.40
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.80
—
Goals for per game
1.80
—
Goals against per game
0.90
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
71
—
PPG
1.54
—
Win rate
40.8%
—
Draw rate
31.0%
—
Loss rate
28.2%
—
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
—
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
—
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
36
—
PPG
1.47
—
Win rate
38.9%
—
Draw rate
30.6%
—
Loss rate
30.6%
—
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
—
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
—
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
0
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
—
Goals for per game
1.61
—
Scoring rate
77.5%
—
BTTS rate
57.7%
—
Goals for per game
1.53
—
Scoring rate
75.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Scoring rate
75.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
71
—
Goals Mean
1.61
—
Goals Std
1.53
—
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
—
Scored 2+ rate
36.6%
—
Scored 3+ rate
23.9%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
—
Goals against per game
1.21
—
Conceding rate
70.4%
—
Goals against per game
0.97
—
Conceding rate
63.9%
—
Goals against per game
1.50
—
Conceding rate
75.0%
0
History Matches
71
—
Conceded Mean
1.21
—
Conceded Std
1.06
—
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
—
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
71
—
Result entropy
0.99
—
Goal Difference Std
1.92
—
Stability score
1.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
71
0
Lead Matches
23
—
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.77
0
Trailing Matches
12
—
Non-loss rate
41.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
74.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
9
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
45
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
0
Long Rest History Matches
16
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals 170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
1.50
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
1.50
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
0
Competition Season Count
7
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
—
Portability PPG Std
0.34
—
Portability PPG Range
0.96
—
Portability Score
59.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-68.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-71
History Matches-36
History Matches-71
History Matches-71
History Matches-71
Eligible Matches-71
Lead Matches-23
Trailing Matches-12
Halftime Coverage Matches-71
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count-7
Eligible Competition Season Count-5
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest History Matches-45
Long Rest History Matches-16
Current Team ELO-68.00
Current Opponent ELO68.00
Current ELO Difference-136.0
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-71
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Estrella Roja
W
Estrella Roja3–1Atletico Independiente31 Oct · home
Pick: Estrella Roja 40% · hit D
Olancho3–3Estrella Roja24 Oct · away
Pick: Olancho 67% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
CD Motagua
W
CD Motagua2–0CD Marathon1 Nov · home
Pick: CD Motagua 38% · hit L
LD Alajuelense2–1CD Motagua30 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 39% · hit W
CD Motagua2–0Juticalpa25 Oct · home
Pick: CD Motagua 76% · hit D
CD Motagua0–0LD Alajuelense23 Oct · home
Pick: CD Motagua 44% · missed W
Platense FC0–2CD Motagua17 Oct · away
Pick: CD Motagua 63% · hit About this match
Estrella Roja and CD Motagua meet in Liga Nacional on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 23:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Estrella Roja win 37.5%, draw 29.8%, CD Motagua win 32.7%. The pick is Estrella Roja win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.