ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 13 2026

CD Olimpia vs Juticalpa

CD Olimpia Home · Elo 1,637
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Juticalpa Away · Elo 1,431
Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CD Olimpia win
CD Olimpia winPick
80.3%
Draw
12.8%
Juticalpa win
6.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%

How much we know

CD Olimpia history65 matches
Juticalpa history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (80.3%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why CD Olimpia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CD Olimpia are rated 207 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,431. On rating alone CD Olimpia would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • CD Olimpia score far more

    1.86 goals a game over 65 matches for CD Olimpia, against 0.84 over 45 for Juticalpa.

  • CD Olimpia concede fewer

    CD Olimpia concede 1.12 a game, Juticalpa 1.89.

  • CD Olimpia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of CD Olimpia matches, against 44% for Juticalpa. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CD Olimpia
Juticalpa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1637.3
ELO
1430.6
65
ELO · Matches
45
1637.3
Current Team ELO
1430.6
1430.6
Current Opponent ELO
1637.3
206.7
Current ELO Difference
-206.7
0.77
Expected score
0.23
65
History Matches
45
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.07
57.39
Overperformance
45.46
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.80
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
2.00
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.61
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
45
1.91
PPG
1.02
55.4%
Win rate
24.4%
24.6%
Draw rate
28.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
46.7%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.9%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
20
2.30
PPG
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
10.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
30
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
0.84
86.2%
Scoring rate
68.9%
60.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.90
93.3%
Scoring rate
65.0%
46.7%
BTTS rate
45.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
45
1.86
Goals Mean
0.84
1.33
Goals Std
0.70
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
13.3%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
2.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.89
70.8%
Conceding rate
73.3%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.85
53.3%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.75
Goals against per game
3.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
45
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.13
Conceded Std
1.86
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.1%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
45
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.08
9.50
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
45
27
Lead Matches
10
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
40.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.50
12
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.09
Rest days
74.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
23
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.65
25
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
0.00
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.25
8
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.17
54.40
Portability Score
49.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO206.7
PPG0.89
GF1.02
GA-0.77
PPG2.50
PPG1.30
PPG2.00
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches20
Goals Mean1.02
Goals Std0.64
Scored 1+ rate17.3%
Scored 2+ rate46.7%
Scored 3+ rate22.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.77
Conceded Std-0.73
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score5.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate41.5%
Lead Points Retention0.35
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.75
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score5.15
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match0.38
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.35
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.72
Current Team ELO206.7
Current Opponent ELO-206.7
Current ELO Difference413.5
Expected score0.53
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CD Olimpia

W
Atlético Choloma0–3CD Olimpia1 Nov · away
Pick: CD Olimpia 73% · hit
D
CD Olimpia2–2CS Cartagines29 Oct · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 47% · missed
W
Lobos Upnfm0–1CD Olimpia25 Oct · away
Pick: CD Olimpia 67% · hit
L
CS Cartagines1–0CD Olimpia22 Oct · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 37% · hit
W
CD Olimpia2–1Real Espana16 Oct · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 50% · hit

Juticalpa

L
Real Espana3–1Juticalpa31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Espana 77% · hit
L
CD Motagua2–0Juticalpa25 Oct · away
Pick: CD Motagua 76% · hit
L
Juticalpa1–2Atlético Choloma17 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Choloma 38% · hit
W
Juticalpa1–0Lobos Upnfm29 Aug · home
Pick: Lobos Upnfm 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CD Olimpia and Juticalpa meet in Liga Nacional on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: CD Olimpia win 80.3%, draw 12.8%, Juticalpa win 6.9%. The pick is CD Olimpia win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.