Estrella vs Playas Sotavento
Estrella
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Playas Sotavento
Match result probability Model pick: Estrella win
Estrella winPick
53.3%
Draw
26.8%
Playas Sotavento win
19.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.8%
No51.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%
How much we know
Estrella history14 matches
Playas Sotavento history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Estrella
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Estrella are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,494 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estrella
Playas Sotavento
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1493.6
ELO
1500.0
14
ELO · Matches
0
1493.6
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1493.6
-6.37
Current ELO Difference
6.37
0.49
Expected score
0.51
14
History Matches
0
-0.01
Residual Mean
—
49.60
Overperformance
—
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
1.20
PPG
—
1.20
Goals for per game
—
1.20
Goals against per game
—
20.0%
Win rate
—
10
Matches
0
1.10
PPG
—
1.10
Goals for per game
—
1.20
Goals against per game
—
20.0%
Win rate
—
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
0
1.29
PPG
—
28.6%
Win rate
—
42.9%
Draw rate
—
28.6%
Loss rate
—
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
—
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
—
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
0
1.75
PPG
—
37.5%
Win rate
—
62.5%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
—
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
—
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
8
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
—
64.3%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
1.13
Goals for per game
—
75.0%
Scoring rate
—
62.5%
BTTS rate
—
14
History Matches
0
1.00
Goals Mean
—
0.85
Goals Std
—
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
—
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
—
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
—
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
—
71.4%
Conceding rate
—
0.75
Goals against per game
—
62.5%
Conceding rate
—
14
History Matches
0
1.07
Conceded Mean
—
0.88
Conceded Std
—
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
—
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
—
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
—
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
—
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
—
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
—
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
0
0.98
Result entropy
—
1.10
Goal Difference Std
—
1.79
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
0
1
Lead Matches
0
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.33
Lead Points Retention
—
4
Trailing Matches
0
50.0%
Non-loss rate
—
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
545.0
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
8
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
5
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
0
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-6.37
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
History Matches8
History Matches14
History Matches14
History Matches14
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches1
Trailing Matches4
Halftime Coverage Matches14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Long Rest History Matches5
Current Team ELO-6.37
Current Opponent ELO6.37
Current ELO Difference-12.74
Expected score-0.02
History Matches14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Estrella
W
Laguna de Duero0–3Estrella31 Oct · away
Pick: Estrella 39% · hit L
Estrella0–1Real Unión de Tenerife24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 42% · missed L
San Miguel3–0Estrella21 Oct · away
Pick: San Miguel 52% · hit L
Marino1–0Estrella18 Oct · away
Pick: Marino 55% · hit L
UD San Fernando3–0Estrella4 Oct · away
Pick: UD San Fernando 66% · hit Playas Sotavento
L
Playas Sotavento0–2Unión Sur Yaiza31 Oct · home
Pick: Playas Sotavento 39% · missed D
Playas Sotavento1–1Panadería Pulido24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · hit D
San Bartolomé1–1Playas Sotavento21 Oct · away
Pick: San Bartolomé 65% · missed D
Laguna de Duero1–1Playas Sotavento17 Oct · away
Pick: Laguna de Duero 54% · missed L
Marino6–1Playas Sotavento4 Oct · away
Pick: Marino 65% · hit About this match
Estrella and Playas Sotavento meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Estrella win 53.3%, draw 26.8%, Playas Sotavento win 19.9%. The pick is Estrella win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.5%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.