ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain Group 12 - 10 2026

Villa Santa Brígida vs Real Unión de Tenerife

Villa Santa Brígida Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Unión de Tenerife Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villa Santa Brígida win
Villa Santa Brígida winPick
47.6%
Draw
33.2%
Real Unión de Tenerife win
19.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.2%
Under 2.559.8%

How much we know

Villa Santa Brígida history47 matches
Real Unión de Tenerife history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Villa Santa Brígida are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,499 against 1,483. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.06 goals a game over 47 matches for Villa Santa Brígida, against 0.97 over 33 for Real Unión de Tenerife.

  • Real Unión de Tenerife concede fewer

    Villa Santa Brígida concede 1.06 a game, Real Unión de Tenerife 0.94.

  • Villa Santa Brígida games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Villa Santa Brígida matches, against 24% for Real Unión de Tenerife. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villa Santa Brígida
Real Unión de Tenerife
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.6
ELO
1483.3
47
ELO · Matches
33
1498.6
Current Team ELO
1483.3
1483.3
Current Opponent ELO
1498.6
15.37
Current ELO Difference
-15.37
0.52
Expected score
0.48
47
History Matches
33
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.81
Overperformance
48.24
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
33
1.28
PPG
1.27
34.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.5%
Draw rate
27.3%
40.4%
Loss rate
39.4%
66.0%
Over 1.5 rate
54.5%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
24.2%
12.8%
Over 3.5 rate
12.1%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
17
1.83
PPG
0.71
47.8%
Win rate
11.8%
39.1%
Draw rate
35.3%
13.0%
Loss rate
52.9%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
30.4%
Over 2.5 rate
17.6%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
23
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
0.97
66.0%
Scoring rate
54.5%
38.3%
BTTS rate
30.3%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.59
87.0%
Scoring rate
47.1%
43.5%
BTTS rate
35.3%
47
History Matches
33
1.06
Goals Mean
0.97
1.06
Goals Std
1.14
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
54.5%
23.4%
Scored 2+ rate
27.3%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
0.94
63.8%
Conceding rate
60.6%
0.74
Goals against per game
1.12
52.2%
Conceding rate
76.5%
47
History Matches
33
1.06
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.00
Conceded Std
1.01
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
33
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.51
1.55
Stability score
1.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
33
14
Lead Matches
8
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.79
7
Trailing Matches
8
14.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.7
Rest days
181.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.89
24
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.60
Portability PPG Range
—
62.60
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO15.37
PPG0.00
GF0.09
GA0.12
PPG1.12
PPG1.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate24.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate11.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score0.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days1.63
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO15.37
Current Opponent ELO-15.37
Current ELO Difference30.75
Expected score0.04
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villa Santa Brígida

D
Marino1–1Villa Santa Brígida1 Nov · away
Pick: Marino 39% · missed
W
Villa Santa Brígida1–0Los Llanos24 Oct · home
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 63% · hit
L
Tenerife C2–1Villa Santa Brígida21 Oct · away
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 42% · missed
L
UD San Fernando4–0Villa Santa Brígida17 Oct · away
Pick: UD San Fernando 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Unión de Tenerife

D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1Lanzarote31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
Estrella0–1Real Unión de Tenerife24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 42% · missed
L
UD San Fernando3–2Real Unión de Tenerife21 Oct · away
Pick: UD San Fernando 55% · hit
D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1Unión Sur Yaiza17 Oct · home
Pick: Real Unión de Tenerife 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villa Santa Brígida and Real Unión de Tenerife meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Villa Santa Brígida win 47.6%, draw 33.2%, Real Unión de Tenerife win 19.2%. The pick is Villa Santa Brígida win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.2%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.