ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

Étoile du Congo vs Dauphins Noirs

Étoile du Congo Home · Elo 1,521
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dauphins Noirs Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Étoile du Congo win
Étoile du Congo winPick
35.7%
Draw
35.0%
Dauphins Noirs win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.8%
No59.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.531.1%
Under 2.568.9%

How much we know

Étoile du Congo history4 matches
Dauphins Noirs history22 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Étoile du Congo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,521 against 1,524. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Étoile du Congo score more

    1.50 goals a game over 4 matches for Étoile du Congo, against 1.23 over 22 for Dauphins Noirs.

  • Étoile du Congo concede fewer

    Étoile du Congo concede 0.00 a game, Dauphins Noirs 0.86.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    25% of Étoile du Congo matches, against 27% for Dauphins Noirs. The model puts this match at 31% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Étoile du Congo
Dauphins Noirs
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.3
ELO
1523.6
4
ELO · Matches
22
1521.3
Current Team ELO
1523.6
1523.6
Current Opponent ELO
1521.3
-2.36
Current ELO Difference
2.36
0.50
Expected score
0.50
4
History Matches
22
0.36
Residual Mean
0.05
55.96
Overperformance
52.81
0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
2.50
PPG
2.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
0.00
Goals against per game
0.60
75.0%
Win rate
60.0%
4
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
0.00
Goals against per game
0.70
75.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
22
2.50
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
40.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
31.8%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
11
2.50
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
18.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
36.4%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
54.5%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
18.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
4
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
1.23
75.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
40.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.82
75.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
0.0%
BTTS rate
45.5%
4
History Matches
22
1.50
Goals Mean
1.23
1.50
Goals Std
1.04
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.8%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.00
Goals against per game
0.86
0.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.82
0.0%
Conceding rate
72.7%
4
History Matches
22
0.00
Conceded Mean
0.86
0.00
Conceded Std
0.81
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.2%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.5%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
22
0.51
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.26
48.81
Stability score
1.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
20
1
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
602.9
Rest days
212.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
13
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
1
Long Rest History Matches
7
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
22
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.36
PPG1.00
GF0.27
GA-0.86
PPG1.50
PPG0.30
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate63.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate72.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-18
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean-0.86
Conceded Std-0.81
Clean-sheet rate63.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.48
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score47.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days390.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.71
Current Team ELO-2.36
Current Opponent ELO2.36
Current ELO Difference-4.71
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-18
Residual Mean0.30
Overperformance3.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Étoile du Congo

L
Céleste2–1Étoile du Congo30 Oct · away
Pick: Céleste 52% · hit
W
JSK0–1Étoile du Congo20 Oct · away
Pick: JSK 67% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dauphins Noirs

D
Dauphins Noirs0–0Rangers20 Oct · home
Pick: Rangers 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Étoile du Congo and Dauphins Noirs meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Étoile du Congo win 35.7%, draw 35.0%, Dauphins Noirs win 29.3%. The pick is Étoile du Congo win. Over 2.5 goals: 31.1%. Both teams to score: 40.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.