ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

Maniema Union vs Vita Club

Maniema Union Home · Elo 1,603
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vita Club Away · Elo 1,586
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maniema Union win
Maniema Union winPick
50.6%
Draw
32.5%
Vita Club win
16.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.3%
No57.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.0%
Under 2.566.0%

How much we know

Maniema Union history72 matches
Vita Club history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Maniema Union are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,603 against 1,586. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Maniema Union score more

    1.19 goals a game over 72 matches for Maniema Union, against 1.07 over 55 for Vita Club.

  • Vita Club concede fewer

    Maniema Union concede 0.64 a game, Vita Club 0.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Maniema Union matches, against 29% for Vita Club. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maniema Union
Vita Club
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1602.7
ELO
1585.6
72
ELO · Matches
55
1602.7
Current Team ELO
1585.6
1585.6
Current Opponent ELO
1602.7
17.10
Current ELO Difference
-17.10
0.52
Expected score
0.48
72
History Matches
55
0.07
Residual Mean
0.08
55.65
Overperformance
55.57
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.10
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
55
1.76
PPG
1.53
48.6%
Win rate
38.2%
30.6%
Draw rate
38.2%
20.8%
Loss rate
23.6%
52.8%
Over 1.5 rate
47.3%
34.7%
Over 2.5 rate
29.1%
9.7%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
28
2.00
PPG
1.64
59.5%
Win rate
42.9%
21.6%
Draw rate
35.7%
18.9%
Loss rate
21.4%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
46.4%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
8.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
37
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
1.07
68.1%
Scoring rate
58.2%
33.3%
BTTS rate
27.3%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.21
73.0%
Scoring rate
53.6%
29.7%
BTTS rate
21.4%
72
History Matches
55
1.19
Goals Mean
1.07
1.14
Goals Std
1.23
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
58.2%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
25.5%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.64
Goals against per game
0.55
47.2%
Conceding rate
43.6%
0.59
Goals against per game
0.50
43.2%
Conceding rate
42.9%
72
History Matches
55
0.64
Conceded Mean
0.55
0.82
Conceded Std
0.71
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
9.1%
2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.8%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
52.8%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.8%
56.8%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
52.8%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.8%
56.8%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
52.8%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
55
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.50
5.36
Stability score
2.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
47
22
Lead Matches
13
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.87
8
Trailing Matches
8
12.5%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
140.1
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
42
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
14
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.93
78.50
Portability Score
51.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO17.10
PPG0.24
GF0.12
GA0.09
PPG0.36
PPG1.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate9.9%
Scored 2+ rate6.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score3.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate1.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score26.69
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO17.10
Current Opponent ELO-17.10
Current ELO Difference34.20
Expected score0.05
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maniema Union

W
JSK1–2Maniema Union29 Oct · away
Pick: Maniema Union 34% · hit
W
Maniema Union4–1Kabuscorp25 Oct · home
Pick: Maniema Union 51% · hit
W
Kabuscorp1–4Maniema Union18 Oct · away
Pick: Maniema Union 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vita Club

W
Vita Club3–0Novakin30 Oct · home
Pick: Vita Club 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Maniema Union and Vita Club meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Maniema Union win 50.6%, draw 32.5%, Vita Club win 16.9%. The pick is Maniema Union win. Over 2.5 goals: 34.0%. Both teams to score: 42.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.