ScoreProb
Júniores U19 Portugal Round 11 2026

Famalicão U19 vs Gil Vicente U19

Famalicão U19 Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gil Vicente U19 Away · Elo 1,482
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Famalicão U19 win
Famalicão U19 winPick
38.4%
Draw
25.4%
Gil Vicente U19 win
36.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Famalicão U19 history43 matches
Gil Vicente U19 history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Famalicão U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Famalicão U19 are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,482. On rating alone Famalicão U19 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Famalicão U19 score more

    1.67 goals a game over 43 matches for Famalicão U19, against 1.11 over 47 for Gil Vicente U19.

  • Defences are close

    Famalicão U19 concede 1.44 a game, Gil Vicente U19 1.49.

  • Famalicão U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Famalicão U19 matches, against 53% for Gil Vicente U19. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Famalicão U19
Gil Vicente U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.9
ELO
1481.9
43
ELO · Matches
47
1514.9
Current Team ELO
1481.9
1481.9
Current Opponent ELO
1514.9
33.00
Current ELO Difference
-33.00
0.55
Expected score
0.45
43
History Matches
47
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.97
Overperformance
48.90
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.70
Goals against per game
2.30
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
47
1.56
PPG
1.19
46.5%
Win rate
34.0%
16.3%
Draw rate
17.0%
37.2%
Loss rate
48.9%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
65.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
23
1.71
PPG
1.00
52.4%
Win rate
26.1%
14.3%
Draw rate
21.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.2%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
21
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.11
79.1%
Scoring rate
68.1%
60.5%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.04
76.2%
Scoring rate
60.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
43.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
43
History Matches
47
1.67
Goals Mean
1.11
1.29
Goals Std
1.13
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
53.5%
Scored 2+ rate
23.4%
23.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.49
79.1%
Conceding rate
70.2%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.91
76.2%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
43
History Matches
47
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.17
Conceded Std
1.50
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.6%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
47
0.93
Result entropy
0.93
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.09
7.21
Stability score
7.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
46
14
Lead Matches
9
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
1.00
12
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.07
Portability PPG Range
0.48
48.32
Portability Score
67.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO33.00
PPG0.37
GF0.57
GA-0.05
PPG-2.50
PPG0.71
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate11.0%
Scored 2+ rate30.1%
Scored 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.28
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-0.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.29
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate18.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.59
Portability Score-19.21
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO33.00
Current Opponent ELO-33.00
Current ELO Difference66.01
Expected score0.09
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Famalicão U19

W
Famalicão U193–1Moreirense U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Famalicão U19 54% · hit
D
Sporting Braga U193–3Famalicão U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Braga U19 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gil Vicente U19

D
Gil Vicente U191–1Sporting Braga U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Braga U19 49% · missed
W
Gil Vicente U193–1Rio Ave U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Gil Vicente U19 50% · hit
L
Porto U195–0Gil Vicente U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Porto U19 69% · hit
D
Sporting Braga U190–0Gil Vicente U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Sporting Braga U19 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Famalicão U19 and Gil Vicente U19 meet in Júniores U19 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Famalicão U19 win 38.4%, draw 25.4%, Gil Vicente U19 win 36.2%. The pick is Famalicão U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.