ScoreProb
Júniores U19 Portugal Round 11 2026

Santa Clara U19 vs Casa Pia U19

Santa Clara U19 Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Casa Pia U19 Away · Elo 1,519
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santa Clara U19 win
Santa Clara U19 winPick
38.0%
Draw
32.3%
Casa Pia U19 win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%

How much we know

Santa Clara U19 history33 matches
Casa Pia U19 history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Santa Clara U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,518 against 1,519. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Santa Clara U19 score more

    1.18 goals a game over 33 matches for Santa Clara U19, against 1.00 over 12 for Casa Pia U19.

  • Casa Pia U19 concede fewer

    Santa Clara U19 concede 1.18 a game, Casa Pia U19 0.83.

  • Santa Clara U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Santa Clara U19 matches, against 8% for Casa Pia U19. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santa Clara U19
Casa Pia U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.5
ELO
1518.9
33
ELO · Matches
12
1518.5
Current Team ELO
1518.9
1518.9
Current Opponent ELO
1518.5
-0.38
Current ELO Difference
0.38
0.50
Expected score
0.50
33
History Matches
12
0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
51.59
Overperformance
53.55
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
12
1.39
PPG
1.50
36.4%
Win rate
33.3%
30.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
8.3%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
5
1.56
PPG
1.00
37.5%
Win rate
20.0%
43.8%
Draw rate
40.0%
18.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
16
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.00
69.7%
Scoring rate
58.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.44
Goals for per game
0.80
87.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
81.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.67
0.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
33
History Matches
12
1.18
Goals Mean
1.00
1.03
Goals Std
1.15
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
58.3%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
0.83
75.8%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.20
87.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
33
History Matches
12
1.18
Conceded Mean
0.83
0.90
Conceded Std
0.99
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
12
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.21
0.25
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
12
12
Lead Matches
2
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
3
16.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.08
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
19
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
1
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.11
—
Portability PPG Range
0.22
—
Portability Score
81.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-0.38
PPG-0.11
GF0.18
GA0.35
PPG-1.33
PPG0.56
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches21
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate11.4%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches21
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Conceded 2+ rate8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches21
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-7.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.42
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days8.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO-0.38
Current Opponent ELO0.38
Current ELO Difference-0.76
Expected score0.00
History Matches21
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-1.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santa Clara U19

L
Alverca U194–0Santa Clara U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Alverca U19 47% · hit
D
Sporting CP U192–2Santa Clara U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP U19 64% · missed
D
Santa Clara U191–1Torreense U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Torreense U19 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Casa Pia U19

D
Casa Pia U191–1Sporting CP U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP U19 50% · missed
D
Casa Pia U190–0Benfica U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica U19 45% · missed
W
Mafra U190–1Casa Pia U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Mafra U19 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Santa Clara U19 and Casa Pia U19 meet in Júniores U19 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Santa Clara U19 win 38.0%, draw 32.3%, Casa Pia U19 win 29.7%. The pick is Santa Clara U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.1%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.