ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

Farense vs Benfica B

Farense Home · Elo 1,496
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Benfica B Away · Elo 1,555
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Farense win
Farense winPick
40.9%
Draw
28.9%
Benfica B win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.9%
Under 2.558.1%

How much we know

Farense history63 matches
Benfica B history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Farense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Benfica B are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,496. On rating alone Benfica B would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Benfica B score more

    1.02 goals a game over 63 matches for Farense, against 1.44 over 68 for Benfica B.

  • Defences are close

    Farense concede 1.19 a game, Benfica B 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Farense matches, against 43% for Benfica B. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Farense
Benfica B
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.1
ELO
1555.1
63
ELO · Matches
68
1496.1
Current Team ELO
1555.1
1555.1
Current Opponent ELO
1496.1
-59.01
Current ELO Difference
59.01
0.42
Expected score
0.58
63
History Matches
68
0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
50.47
Overperformance
52.53
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
68
1.17
PPG
1.40
30.2%
Win rate
33.8%
27.0%
Draw rate
38.2%
42.9%
Loss rate
27.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.6%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
37
0.97
PPG
1.30
23.5%
Win rate
29.7%
26.5%
Draw rate
40.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
29.7%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
32.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
8.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
34
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.44
57.1%
Scoring rate
80.9%
41.3%
BTTS rate
60.3%
0.85
Goals for per game
1.51
47.1%
Scoring rate
81.1%
41.2%
BTTS rate
70.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
63
History Matches
68
1.02
Goals Mean
1.44
1.12
Goals Std
1.30
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
31.7%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
7.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
0.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.51
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.18
71.4%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.38
79.4%
Conceding rate
83.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
63
History Matches
68
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.07
Conceded Std
1.06
31.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.59
1.87
Stability score
0.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
60
12
Lead Matches
16
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
53.8%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
78.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
29
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
32
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.34
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.33
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.60
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.83
38.75
Portability Score
45.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-59.01
PPG-0.22
GF-0.43
GA0.01
PPG0.00
PPG-0.33
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate23.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate34.0%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score1.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate2.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-6.85
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.71
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO-59.01
Current Opponent ELO59.01
Current ELO Difference-118.0
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Farense

D
Lusitânia Lourosa1–1Farense1 Nov · away
Pick: Lusitânia Lourosa 40% · missed
L
Farense1–4Penafiel24 Oct · home
Pick: Farense 55% · missed
W
Farense3–0AD Marco 0917 Oct · home
Pick: Farense 46% · hit
W
Farense4–0Chaves4 Oct · home
Pick: Farense 53% · hit
L
Sporting CP B2–1Farense30 Aug · away
Pick: Farense 39% · missed

Benfica B

W
Benfica B3–1Chaves31 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica B 59% · hit
D
Feirense0–0Benfica B24 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica B 45% · missed
W
Benfica B1–0Felgueiras 193212 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica B 50% · hit
L
Amarante1–0Benfica B30 Aug · away
Pick: Benfica B 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Farense and Benfica B meet in Segunda Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Farense win 40.9%, draw 28.9%, Benfica B win 30.3%. The pick is Farense win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.9%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.