ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

Sporting CP B vs Tondela

Sporting CP B Home · Elo 1,460
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tondela Away · Elo 1,459
CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira, Alcochete Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting CP B win
Sporting CP B winPick
44.0%
Draw
26.8%
Tondela win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.3%
No56.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%

How much we know

Sporting CP B history56 matches
Tondela history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sporting CP B are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,460 against 1,459. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 56 matches for Sporting CP B, against 1.08 over 66 for Tondela.

  • Sporting CP B concede fewer

    Sporting CP B concede 0.96 a game, Tondela 1.36.

  • Tondela games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Sporting CP B matches, against 50% for Tondela. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting CP B
Tondela
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.9
ELO
1459.2
56
ELO · Matches
66
1459.9
Current Team ELO
1459.2
1459.2
Current Opponent ELO
1459.9
0.71
Current ELO Difference
-0.71
0.50
Expected score
0.50
56
History Matches
66
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
46.62
Overperformance
47.90
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.10
0.30
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.46
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
66
1.38
PPG
1.23
41.1%
Win rate
31.8%
14.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
44.6%
Loss rate
40.9%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
41.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
32
1.60
PPG
1.16
52.0%
Win rate
31.3%
4.0%
Draw rate
21.9%
44.0%
Loss rate
46.9%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
25
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.08
66.1%
Scoring rate
62.1%
39.3%
BTTS rate
47.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.09
68.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
32.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
0.67
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
66
1.18
Goals Mean
1.08
1.15
Goals Std
1.05
66.1%
Scored 1+ rate
62.1%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.36
66.1%
Conceding rate
78.8%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.63
60.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
66
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.36
0.89
Conceded Std
1.05
23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.4%
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
66
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.61
8.66
Stability score
1.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
60
16
Lead Matches
16
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
19
Trailing Matches
18
21.1%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.21
Rest days
78.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
23
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
29
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.51
49.95
Portability Score
46.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO0.71
PPG0.15
GF0.10
GA-0.40
PPG1.00
PPG0.44
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate4.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score7.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate10.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score3.84
Rest days-1.74
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO0.71
Current Opponent ELO-0.71
Current ELO Difference1.42
Expected score0.00
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sporting CP B

W
Leixoes1–2Sporting CP B31 Oct · away
Pick: Leixoes 38% · missed
W
Leicester City U211–2Sporting CP B30 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP B 40% · hit
W
Sporting CP B3–0Portimonense24 Oct · home
Pick: Portimonense 39% · missed
W
Sporting CP B2–1Farense30 Aug · home
Pick: Farense 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tondela

W
Tondela3–2Felgueiras 19321 Nov · home
Pick: Tondela 37% · hit
L
AVS2–1Tondela25 Oct · away
Pick: AVS 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sporting CP B and Tondela meet in Segunda Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira, Alcochete. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sporting CP B win 44.0%, draw 26.8%, Tondela win 29.2%. The pick is Sporting CP B win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.6%. Both teams to score: 43.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.