ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid

Sporting Gijon Home · Elo 1,531
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Valladolid Away · Elo 1,444
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting Gijon win
Sporting Gijon winPick
60.1%
Draw
19.5%
Valladolid win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Sporting Gijon history76 matches
Valladolid history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Sporting Gijon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sporting Gijon are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,444. On rating alone Sporting Gijon would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Sporting Gijon score more

    1.45 goals a game over 76 matches for Sporting Gijon, against 1.01 over 71 for Valladolid.

  • Sporting Gijon concede fewer

    Sporting Gijon concede 1.29 a game, Valladolid 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Sporting Gijon matches, against 49% for Valladolid. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting Gijon
Valladolid
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.5
ELO
1444.1
76
ELO · Matches
71
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1444.1
1444.1
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
86.45
Current ELO Difference
-86.45
0.62
Expected score
0.38
76
History Matches
71
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.35
Overperformance
46.36
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.00
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
71
1.46
PPG
0.90
42.1%
Win rate
23.9%
19.7%
Draw rate
18.3%
38.2%
Loss rate
57.7%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.8%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
32.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
40
1.81
PPG
0.75
51.4%
Win rate
20.0%
27.0%
Draw rate
15.0%
21.6%
Loss rate
65.0%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
37
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.01
77.6%
Scoring rate
57.7%
56.6%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.03
83.8%
Scoring rate
62.5%
56.8%
BTTS rate
47.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
76
History Matches
71
1.45
Goals Mean
1.01
1.17
Goals Std
1.14
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
57.7%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
25.4%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.68
71.1%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.11
Goals against per game
2.00
62.2%
Conceding rate
82.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
71
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.16
Conceded Std
1.51
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.3%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.9%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
71
0.96
Result entropy
0.88
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.96
4.23
Stability score
11.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
71
24
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.80
23
Trailing Matches
26
26.1%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
30
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.80
Portability PPG Range
1.94
58.80
Portability Score
39.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO86.45
PPG0.56
GF0.43
GA-0.39
PPG2.00
PPG1.06
PPG0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate19.9%
Scored 2+ rate15.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches5
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score-7.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate1.7%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate6.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.40
Portability PPG Range-1.14
Portability Score18.81
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO86.45
Current Opponent ELO-86.45
Current ELO Difference172.9
Expected score0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sporting Gijon

W
AD Ceuta FC0–2Sporting Gijon1 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting Gijon 41% · hit
W
Guijuelo1–3Sporting Gijon29 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Gijon 43% · hit
L
Castellón4–0Sporting Gijon25 Oct · away
Pick: Castellón 41% · hit
W
Sporting Gijon2–1Albacete17 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijon 49% · hit
W
Sporting Gijon3–2Celta de Vigo II4 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijon 40% · hit

Valladolid

W
Valladolid4–3Leganes2 Nov · home
Pick: Leganes 48% · missed
L
Granada CF2–1Valladolid23 Oct · away
Pick: Granada CF 59% · hit
L
Valladolid2–3Eldense18 Oct · home
Pick: Valladolid 39% · missed
W
Valladolid5–0Albacete12 Oct · home
Pick: Albacete 44% · missed
D
Las Palmas2–2Valladolid4 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas 61% · missed

About this match

Sporting Gijon and Valladolid meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sporting Gijon win 60.1%, draw 19.5%, Valladolid win 20.4%. The pick is Sporting Gijon win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.