ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel South - 10 2026

FC Jerusalem vs Dimona

FC Jerusalem Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dimona Away · Elo 1,545
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dimona win
FC Jerusalem win
35.5%
Draw
24.9%
Dimona winPick
39.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

FC Jerusalem history32 matches
Dimona history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Dimona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,545. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • FC Jerusalem score more

    1.75 goals a game over 32 matches for FC Jerusalem, against 1.31 over 35 for Dimona.

  • Dimona concede fewer

    FC Jerusalem concede 1.50 a game, Dimona 1.17.

  • FC Jerusalem games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of FC Jerusalem matches, against 49% for Dimona. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Jerusalem
Dimona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.7
ELO
1544.6
32
ELO · Matches
35
1521.7
Current Team ELO
1544.6
1544.6
Current Opponent ELO
1521.7
-22.92
Current ELO Difference
22.92
0.47
Expected score
0.53
32
History Matches
35
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
52.07
Overperformance
53.84
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
3.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
2.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
32
Matches
35
1.50
PPG
1.69
43.8%
Win rate
51.4%
18.8%
Draw rate
14.3%
37.5%
Loss rate
34.3%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
18
1.69
PPG
1.39
50.0%
Win rate
38.9%
18.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
38.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
16
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.75
Goals for per game
1.31
78.1%
Scoring rate
80.0%
53.1%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.33
81.3%
Scoring rate
77.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
32
History Matches
35
1.75
Goals Mean
1.31
1.46
Goals Std
0.95
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
28.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
1.17
75.0%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.56
68.8%
Conceding rate
72.2%
32
History Matches
35
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.35
Conceded Std
1.25
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
32
History Matches
35
0.95
Result entropy
0.90
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.87
5.03
Stability score
10.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
34
12
Lead Matches
7
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
9
20.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
253.1
Rest days
253.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.22
Portability PPG Range
0.55
82.03
Portability Score
69.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
32
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-22.92
PPG-0.19
GF0.44
GA0.33
PPG0.30
PPG0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.44
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate9.7%
Scored 3+ rate13.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.82
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.51
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score-5.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate8.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score12.90
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO-22.92
Current Opponent ELO22.92
Current ELO Difference-45.84
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Jerusalem

L
Hapoel Azor3–1FC Jerusalem2 Nov · away
Pick: FC Jerusalem 39% · missed
L
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda4–2FC Jerusalem19 Oct · away
Pick: FC Jerusalem 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dimona

W
Dimona7–0Hapoel Herzliya30 Oct · home
Pick: Dimona 46% · hit
L
Dimona2–3Hapoel Rishon LeZion26 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 40% · hit
W
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon0–2Dimona23 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 40% · missed
W
Dimona2–0Bnei Yehuda12 Oct · home
Pick: Bnei Yehuda 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Jerusalem and Dimona meet in Liga Alef on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Jerusalem win 35.5%, draw 24.9%, Dimona win 39.5%. The pick is Dimona win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.