ScoreProb
Superliga Denmark Round 14 2026

FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske

FC Midtjylland Home · Elo 1,694
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sonderjyske Away · Elo 1,502
MCH Arena, Herning Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Midtjylland win
FC Midtjylland winPick
64.3%
Draw
21.4%
Sonderjyske win
14.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%

How much we know

FC Midtjylland history93 matches
Sonderjyske history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why FC Midtjylland are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Midtjylland are rated 192 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,694 against 1,502. On rating alone FC Midtjylland would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • FC Midtjylland score more

    2.23 goals a game over 93 matches for FC Midtjylland, against 1.59 over 68 for Sonderjyske.

  • FC Midtjylland concede fewer

    FC Midtjylland concede 1.17 a game, Sonderjyske 1.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of FC Midtjylland matches, against 62% for Sonderjyske. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Midtjylland
Sonderjyske
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1693.9
ELO
1501.5
93
ELO · Matches
68
1693.9
Current Team ELO
1501.5
1501.5
Current Opponent ELO
1693.9
192.4
Current ELO Difference
-192.4
0.75
Expected score
0.25
93
History Matches
68
0.11
Residual Mean
0.00
58.72
Overperformance
50.30
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
93
Matches
68
2.01
PPG
1.31
59.1%
Win rate
36.8%
23.7%
Draw rate
20.6%
17.2%
Loss rate
42.6%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
43.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
33
2.16
PPG
1.27
65.3%
Win rate
36.4%
20.4%
Draw rate
18.2%
14.3%
Loss rate
45.5%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
65.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
49
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.23
Goals for per game
1.59
88.2%
Scoring rate
79.4%
60.2%
BTTS rate
60.3%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.70
91.8%
Scoring rate
78.8%
63.3%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
93
History Matches
68
2.23
Goals Mean
1.59
1.52
Goals Std
1.49
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
64.5%
Scored 2+ rate
48.5%
37.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
2.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.66
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.67
69.4%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
93
History Matches
68
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.21
Conceded Std
1.43
32.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.5%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.1%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
93
History Matches
68
0.87
Result entropy
0.96
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.14
13.12
Stability score
3.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
91
Eligible Matches
66
38
Lead Matches
19
81.6%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
18
38.5%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
91
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
1.03
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.21
Rest days
77.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
22
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.05
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
36
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
2.50
PPG
0.20
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
4
Current Competition Matches
5
2.50
Current Competition PPG
0.20
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
10
Competition Season Count
6
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.54
2.17
Portability PPG Range
1.80
43.78
Portability Score
47.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
93
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO192.4
PPG0.70
GF0.64
GA-0.49
PPG2.30
PPG0.89
PPG2.40
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches25
Goals Mean0.64
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate8.8%
Scored 2+ rate16.0%
Scored 3+ rate21.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches25
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches25
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score9.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate7.9%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate10.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.95
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.37
Portability Score-4.12
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches20
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO192.4
Current Opponent ELO-192.4
Current ELO Difference384.7
Expected score0.50
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Midtjylland

W
FC Nordsjaelland2–3FC Midtjylland1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Nordsjaelland 39% · missed
W
FC Midtjylland2–1Odense29 Oct · home
Pick: FC Midtjylland 58% · hit
W
FC Midtjylland3–2Lyngby25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Midtjylland 67% · hit
L
FC Midtjylland0–1St. Truiden22 Oct · home
Pick: FC Midtjylland 62% · missed
W
Viborg1–2FC Midtjylland19 Oct · away
Pick: FC Midtjylland 40% · hit

Sonderjyske

L
Sonderjyske0–2FC Copenhagen2 Nov · home
Pick: FC Copenhagen 68% · hit
L
AC Horsens5–1Sonderjyske25 Oct · away
Pick: AC Horsens 51% · hit
W
Sonderjyske4–0Silkeborg18 Oct · home
Pick: Silkeborg 42% · missed
L
Aarhus3–0Sonderjyske12 Oct · away
Pick: Aarhus 58% · hit
L
FC Copenhagen3–1Sonderjyske31 Aug · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 66% · hit

About this match

FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske meet in Superliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at MCH Arena, Herning. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Midtjylland win 64.3%, draw 21.4%, Sonderjyske win 14.2%. The pick is FC Midtjylland win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.1%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.