ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

FC Porto B vs Portimonense

FC Porto B Home · Elo 1,512
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Portimonense Away · Elo 1,471
Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes, Vila Nova de Gaia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Portimonense win
FC Porto B win
29.8%
Draw
25.8%
Portimonense winPick
44.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%

How much we know

FC Porto B history56 matches
Portimonense history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Portimonense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Porto B are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,471. On rating alone FC Porto B would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • FC Porto B score more

    1.23 goals a game over 56 matches for FC Porto B, against 1.10 over 68 for Portimonense.

  • FC Porto B concede fewer

    FC Porto B concede 1.30 a game, Portimonense 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of FC Porto B matches, against 50% for Portimonense. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Porto B
Portimonense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.4
ELO
1471.1
56
ELO · Matches
68
1512.4
Current Team ELO
1471.1
1471.1
Current Opponent ELO
1512.4
41.31
Current ELO Difference
-41.31
0.56
Expected score
0.44
56
History Matches
68
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.07
Overperformance
48.99
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
68
1.43
PPG
1.06
41.1%
Win rate
29.4%
19.6%
Draw rate
17.6%
39.3%
Loss rate
52.9%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
32
1.55
PPG
0.91
48.3%
Win rate
25.0%
10.3%
Draw rate
15.6%
41.4%
Loss rate
59.4%
58.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
29
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.10
71.4%
Scoring rate
72.1%
44.6%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.97
75.9%
Scoring rate
65.6%
44.8%
BTTS rate
53.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
68
1.23
Goals Mean
1.10
1.12
Goals Std
0.88
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
66.1%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.56
62.1%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
68
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.15
Conceded Std
1.08
46.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.6%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
68
0.96
Result entropy
0.91
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.38
4.22
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
64
16
Lead Matches
18
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.56
18
Trailing Matches
14
27.8%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.66
Rest days
78.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
8
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
30
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.72
0.50
Portability PPG Range
2.33
70.18
Portability Score
40.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO41.31
PPG0.37
GF0.13
GA-0.20
PPG-1.33
PPG0.65
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate22.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-4.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate37.5%
Lead Points Retention0.34
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.51
Portability PPG Range-1.83
Portability Score29.30
Rest days-3.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO41.31
Current Opponent ELO-41.31
Current ELO Difference82.63
Expected score0.12
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Porto B

L
Amarante2–1FC Porto B31 Oct · away
Pick: Amarante 52% · hit
D
FC Porto B1–1União de Leiria25 Oct · home
Pick: União de Leiria 41% · missed
L
FC Porto B0–3Penafiel30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Porto B 40% · missed
W
Feirense0–1FC Porto B24 Aug · away
Pick: Feirense 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Portimonense

D
Portimonense0–0Torreense31 Oct · home
Pick: Portimonense 50% · missed
L
Sporting CP B3–0Portimonense24 Oct · away
Pick: Portimonense 39% · missed
W
Florgrade1–2Portimonense17 Oct · away
Pick: Portimonense 36% · hit
L
Portimonense0–2Leixoes29 Aug · home
Pick: Portimonense 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Porto B and Portimonense meet in Segunda Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes, Vila Nova de Gaia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Porto B win 29.8%, draw 25.8%, Portimonense win 44.4%. The pick is Portimonense win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.