ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Wacker Burghausen

FC Schweinfurt 05 Home · Elo 1,414
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wacker Burghausen Away · Elo 1,520
Sachs-Stadion, Schweinfurt Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wacker Burghausen win
FC Schweinfurt 05 win
36.4%
Draw
20.6%
Wacker Burghausen winPick
43.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.6%
No37.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.1%
Under 2.536.9%

How much we know

FC Schweinfurt 05 history70 matches
Wacker Burghausen history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wacker Burghausen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wacker Burghausen are rated 106 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,414. On rating alone Wacker Burghausen would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Wacker Burghausen score more

    1.29 goals a game over 70 matches for FC Schweinfurt 05, against 1.78 over 63 for Wacker Burghausen.

  • Wacker Burghausen concede fewer

    FC Schweinfurt 05 concede 2.14 a game, Wacker Burghausen 1.48.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of FC Schweinfurt 05 matches, against 63% for Wacker Burghausen. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Schweinfurt 05
Wacker Burghausen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1414.2
ELO
1520.3
70
ELO · Matches
63
1414.2
Current Team ELO
1520.3
1520.3
Current Opponent ELO
1414.2
-106.0
Current ELO Difference
106.0
0.35
Expected score
0.65
70
History Matches
63
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
45.26
Overperformance
51.70
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
2.30
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
63
0.91
PPG
1.56
24.3%
Win rate
44.4%
18.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
57.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.5%
45.7%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
29
1.21
PPG
1.17
32.4%
Win rate
34.5%
23.5%
Draw rate
13.8%
44.1%
Loss rate
51.7%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
34
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.78
75.7%
Scoring rate
81.0%
67.1%
BTTS rate
54.0%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.41
82.4%
Scoring rate
72.4%
67.6%
BTTS rate
44.8%
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
70
History Matches
63
1.29
Goals Mean
1.78
1.07
Goals Std
1.48
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.14
Goals against per game
1.48
90.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.74
Goals against per game
1.69
82.4%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
70
History Matches
63
2.14
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.31
Conceded Std
1.38
67.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
35.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
63
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.04
11.15
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
60
21
Lead Matches
17
52.4%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.82
28
Trailing Matches
20
7.1%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.97
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
33
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.11
Portability PPG Range
0.62
53.66
Portability Score
67.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-106.0
PPG-0.64
GF-0.49
GA0.67
PPG0.20
PPG0.03
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.67
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate24.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score7.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-14.04
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Current Team ELO-106.0
Current Opponent ELO106.0
Current ELO Difference-212.1
Expected score-0.30
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Schweinfurt 05

L
Memmingen1–0FC Schweinfurt 0531 Oct · away
Pick: Memmingen 58% · hit
W
FC Schweinfurt 052–1Landsberg23 Oct · home
Pick: FC Schweinfurt 05 47% · hit
L
Augsburg II3–0FC Schweinfurt 0518 Oct · away
Pick: Augsburg II 53% · hit
D
FC Schweinfurt 051–1Ansbach13 Oct · home
Pick: FC Schweinfurt 05 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wacker Burghausen

W
Wacker Burghausen2–0SpVgg Unterhaching30 Oct · home
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · hit
D
Buchbach3–3Wacker Burghausen23 Oct · away
Pick: Buchbach 57% · missed
D
Eltersdorf2–2Wacker Burghausen13 Oct · away
Pick: Eltersdorf 48% · missed
L
Wacker Burghausen4–5Vilzing29 Aug · home
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 and Wacker Burghausen meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Sachs-Stadion, Schweinfurt. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Schweinfurt 05 win 36.4%, draw 20.6%, Wacker Burghausen win 43.0%. The pick is Wacker Burghausen win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.1%. Both teams to score: 62.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.