ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

Greuther Fürth II vs Aubstadt

Greuther Fürth II Home · Elo 1,512
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aubstadt Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aubstadt win
Greuther Fürth II win
37.8%
Draw
22.8%
Aubstadt winPick
39.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Greuther Fürth II history65 matches
Aubstadt history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Aubstadt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,512 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Greuther Fürth II score more

    1.71 goals a game over 65 matches for Greuther Fürth II, against 1.46 over 59 for Aubstadt.

  • Defences are close

    Greuther Fürth II concede 1.51 a game, Aubstadt 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Greuther Fürth II matches, against 51% for Aubstadt. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Greuther Fürth II
Aubstadt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.7
ELO
1502.6
65
ELO · Matches
59
1511.7
Current Team ELO
1502.6
1502.6
Current Opponent ELO
1511.7
9.06
Current ELO Difference
-9.06
0.51
Expected score
0.49
65
History Matches
59
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
50.19
Overperformance
51.03
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
59
1.35
PPG
1.32
36.9%
Win rate
33.9%
24.6%
Draw rate
30.5%
38.5%
Loss rate
35.6%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
43.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.57
PPG
1.23
43.3%
Win rate
30.8%
26.7%
Draw rate
30.8%
30.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.46
80.0%
Scoring rate
74.6%
67.7%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.23
90.0%
Scoring rate
65.4%
73.3%
BTTS rate
53.8%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.50
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
59
1.71
Goals Mean
1.46
1.37
Goals Std
1.32
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
27.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.39
83.1%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.54
83.3%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.75
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
59
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.22
Conceded Std
1.29
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.2%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.90
1.65
Stability score
0.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
56
19
Lead Matches
17
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.71
16
Trailing Matches
18
18.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
80.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
41
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
0.60
PPG
1.25
20.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
5
Current Competition Matches
4
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.57
Portability PPG Range
1.33
43.51
Portability Score
52.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO9.06
PPG0.03
GF0.25
GA0.12
PPG-0.65
PPG0.34
PPG-1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate10.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score1.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate3.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.35
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-8.71
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO9.06
Current Opponent ELO-9.06
Current ELO Difference18.13
Expected score0.03
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Greuther Fürth II

L
Illertissen4–0Greuther Fürth II30 Oct · away
Pick: Illertissen 67% · hit
L
Greuther Fürth II0–2Schwaben Augsburg24 Oct · home
Pick: Greuther Fürth II 47% · missed
D
Ansbach1–1Greuther Fürth II17 Oct · away
Pick: Greuther Fürth II 46% · missed
L
Greuther Fürth II0–1Memmingen13 Oct · home
Pick: Memmingen 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aubstadt

W
Aubstadt2–0Vilzing30 Oct · home
Pick: Aubstadt 46% · hit
D
Nürnberg II1–1Aubstadt24 Oct · away
Pick: Nürnberg II 42% · missed
L
Schwaben Augsburg2–1Aubstadt17 Oct · away
Pick: Aubstadt 42% · missed
D
Aubstadt0–0Illertissen13 Oct · home
Pick: Illertissen 48% · missed
L
Eichstätt3–0Aubstadt29 Aug · away
Pick: Aubstadt 40% · missed

About this match

Greuther Fürth II and Aubstadt meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Greuther Fürth II win 37.8%, draw 22.8%, Aubstadt win 39.4%. The pick is Aubstadt win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 60.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.