ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

FC Tokyo vs Kashima

FC Tokyo Home · Elo 1,582
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kashima Away · Elo 1,703
Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kashima win
FC Tokyo win
27.7%
Draw
28.0%
Kashima winPick
44.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%

How much we know

FC Tokyo history72 matches
Kashima history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kashima are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kashima are rated 120 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,703 against 1,582. On rating alone Kashima would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Kashima score more

    1.31 goals a game over 72 matches for FC Tokyo, against 1.67 over 70 for Kashima.

  • Kashima concede fewer

    FC Tokyo concede 1.19 a game, Kashima 0.87.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of FC Tokyo matches, against 47% for Kashima. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Tokyo
Kashima
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1582.4
ELO
1702.8
72
ELO · Matches
70
1582.4
Current Team ELO
1702.8
1702.8
Current Opponent ELO
1582.4
-120.4
Current ELO Difference
120.4
0.33
Expected score
0.67
72
History Matches
70
0.06
Residual Mean
0.14
54.83
Overperformance
61.23
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
3.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.50
1.20
Goals for per game
2.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
70
1.54
PPG
2.13
41.7%
Win rate
64.3%
29.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
29.2%
Loss rate
15.7%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
26.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
34
1.68
PPG
1.74
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
18.4%
Draw rate
23.5%
31.6%
Loss rate
26.5%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
38
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
90.0%
47.2%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.41
71.1%
Scoring rate
82.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.67
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.31
Goals Mean
1.67
1.20
Goals Std
1.12
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
18.1%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
0.87
70.8%
Conceding rate
54.3%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.09
73.7%
Conceding rate
61.8%
2.33
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.19
Conceded Mean
0.87
1.10
Conceded Std
1.07
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.82
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.56
1.37
Stability score
18.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
67
16
Lead Matches
22
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.91
11
Trailing Matches
14
36.4%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
27.3%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.17
43
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.17
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
3.00
33.3%
Win rate
100.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.28
Portability PPG Range
1.25
51.64
Portability Score
54.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-120.4
PPG-0.59
GF-0.37
GA0.32
PPG-1.67
PPG-0.05
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate23.3%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches2
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-17.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate5.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-2.72
Rest days0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-120.4
Current Opponent ELO120.4
Current ELO Difference-240.8
Expected score-0.33
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Tokyo

W
Fagiano Okayama0–4FC Tokyo31 Oct · away
Pick: Fagiano Okayama 42% · missed
W
FC Tokyo6–0Mito Hollyhock25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Tokyo 40% · hit
D
FC Tokyo0–0Kashiwa Reysol21 Oct · home
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 43% · missed
W
Tokyo Verdy0–4FC Tokyo17 Oct · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy 35% · missed
L
Mito Hollyhock1–0FC Tokyo14 Oct · away
Pick: FC Tokyo 39% · missed

Kashima

W
Kashima4–1Cerezo Osaka31 Oct · home
Pick: Kashima 59% · hit
W
Kashima3–0Pohang Steelers28 Oct · home
Pick: Kashima 42% · hit
L
Kashima2–3Kashiwa Reysol24 Oct · home
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 35% · hit
D
Kyoto Sanga2–2Kashima21 Oct · away
Pick: Kashima 52% · missed
W
Kashima2–0V-varen Nagasaki17 Oct · home
Pick: Kashima 61% · hit

About this match

FC Tokyo and Kashima meet in J1 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Tokyo win 27.7%, draw 28.0%, Kashima win 44.2%. The pick is Kashima win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.